Tour de La Provence – Stage 3 Preview

By @EchelonsHub

It was a tough day for the peloton as they battled all day long to catch the escapee Alexis Gougeard who proved a headache in the final kilometers, the team that worked the most in the final hour of racing got the deserved win as Bryan Coquard took the win in the uphill sprint into Manosque, beating both World champions Julian Alaphilippe and Filippo Ganna in the drag to the line.

Positive: Coquard getting another strong and important win, Alaphilippe gaining another 6 seconds in the GC fight.

Negative: Nothing to note.

The Route

Here we have the queen stage of the race. In the last few years the organizers have put the Mont Ventoux up to good use, but this year it’s neighbor, the Montagne du Lure is getting the spotlight in deciding the overall winner of the race.

The stage is 166 kilometers long and has around 3200 meters of climbing but you don’t need to be bored with details on every single hilltop, this stage is all about the final climb.

13.4Km at 6.5%, not a beast, but not something to be sniffed at, specially in early February! It’s enough of a climb to make some nice gaps, the road is plain and smooth from top to bottom and it has quite a lot of switchbacks that can be used to attack.

The Weather

A southern breeze throughout the day, meaning some favourable wind through a big part of the stage including the final climb. Big speeds I expect in there.

Breakaway Chances: 10%

Today was actually very close, the right rider got in the break and almost took it. However tomorrow is totally different, as the finale is on top of a big climb and there won’t be terrain for a breakaway to really gain a massive chunk of time before the final ascent, specially as several teams will be interested in chasing to make sure they have a shot to at least try and get a win, Groupama and Movistar are good examples of that.

The Favourites

Julian Alaphilippe – He’s done the perfect race so far. Good prologue, lots of bonifications and always made the right splits. Opinions don’t matter here, Alaphilippe has good form, tomorrow’s climb isn’t ideal for him but he has in the past done great climbing exhibitions and he is in the pole position to conquer the GC. Ilan van Wilder and Louis Vervaeke also well positioned, but likely at his full service.

Nairo Quintana – Looks can be deceiving, Quintana is an inconstant rider but on his best level he’s capable of flying up mountains like the very best still. He would’ve preferred Mont Ventoux to be on the menu but he’ll have to settle, the climb isn’t overly hard so it will be hard to gain back 30 seconds on Alaphilippe but that’s surely his goal, the stage win a secondary goal although I’d say he’s the main favourite.

Pierre Latour – He didn’t look too bright in Bessèges but I think he primed his form there, and his initial prologue in Provence was brilliant. So far Latour has been racing very well, it’s been ages since I’ve seen a brilliant climbing performance from him however I fully believe he’s capable of keeping that podium spot.

Aurélien Paret-Peintre – Sitting 11th in the overall, so far Paret-Peintre has been in all the right places yet still underated. On a good day for sure he is a candidate to the win, let’s see what kind of legs he’s brought from the pre-season.

Michael Storer – One of the breakthroughs of last year. This year, he’s in a completely different environment and hasn’t looked all that good in his first few days of racing. Nevertheless he is good, a pure climber, he will be hopeful to have good legs tomorrow and will have freedom to attack.

Ivan Sosa – I know I know… But he has to be considered. Like Quintana, he would’ve preferred Ventoux, however today he looked fine suggesting that he does have form. Like Storer he has freedom, the team won’t go all-in on him but if he’s on a good day he can surely be an interesting wildcard for the stage win.

Some outsiders will be popping in the fight aswell, hanging on in the GC we’ll see naturally the likes of Samuele Battistella, Mattias Skelmose and Matteo Jorgenson also in trying to hang on and get the best possible result in the overall classification. As for others who aren’t well placed but can – in a very small possibility – surprise are Kenny Elissonde, Geoffrey Bouchard or Antonio Pedrero for example. And who knows, with Carapaz out of the picture it’s certain that Filippo Ganna will try and defend his leadership even if it’s a mostly impossible task, however the climb is constant, with a tailwind and not very steep, so it’s certainly one that isn’t at all bad for the Italians skills.

Inside The Bus

This morning I talk to…

#161 Antoine Berlin – Antoine, time to give it a nudge eh! Tomorrow we with big boy climbs so it’s your terrain, it’ll be a good test to see where you’re at and how well you can go with the World Tour guys, we’ll have some guys back you up, others to focus on a breakaway, and In the final climb you know what to do, try to enter well positioned, keep it and hang on for as long as possible, keep and work for a stable position at the end.

#26 Luke Rowe – Luke, we lost Richie so I guess we work for Filippo tomorrow. It wasn’t our initial plan but Ethan isn’t an option, and there’s no real point in getting guys in the breakaway so let’s see what he can do. We don’t have to work, no pushing hard, just let the other teams do the chasing as we sit back, we want a stage as easy as possible so that Pippo can then TT up the final climb with fresh legs.

#24 Ethan Hayter – Ethan you haven’t done so good so I hope you heard what I told Luke, same plan.

Prediction Time

⭐⭐⭐ Quintana, Alaphilippe

⭐⭐ Latour, Storer

⭐Paret-Peintre, Sosa, van Wilder, Jorgenson, Pedrero, Elissonde

I think Alaphilippe will be hard to beat, and will likely win the overall, but Quintana seems to be in good enough form to go on the attack and win this queen stage.

Zweeler is a fantasy sports game that includes many sports and cycling is no exception. I ask that you check it out, if you register with the link below you will not only be joining an exciting game but will also be personally supporting me and my work, and allow me to make more content for you!

Tomorrow’s race has prizes of at least €100 and an entry fee of only €2.5. Make good use of your knowledge!

https://zweeler.com/game/cycling/FantasyTourdeLaProvence2022stage3v2/main.php?ref=790

Rúben SilvaFollow us on Twitter and InstagramJoin us on facebook: Ciclismo Internacional

Copyright © 2012-2021 Ciclismo Internacional. All Rights Reserved