UAE Tour 2022 – Stage 3 preview

By @EchelonsHub

The second stage of the UAE had it’s tense moments but it ended up being a rather calm day overall, with a bunch sprint inevitable only the final kilometers were crucial for the outcome of the stage. Again with plenty of leadouts looking for success, few managed to do so as some were swarmed, unlike yesterday today Mark Cavendish commited to the sprint and managed to take the win in Abu Dhabi, beating Jasper Philipsen and Pascal Ackermann.

Positive: Cavendish coming back and showing his worth. 

Negative: Groenewegen, Viviani, Bennett and DSM missing the sprint. 

The Route

The race’s time-trial. It’s only 9 kilometers so the gaps won’t grow big. It will be in Ajman, this time-trial is set to be very fast and sharp, with a 90º degree turn at the start and then a 180º degree halfway through the effort. Barely no interruption, so It’s perfect for the specialists.

The Weather

Moderately strong wind from the west. This will be important, a tailwind in the first section of the course and then surely a block headwind for the second half. Pacing will be crucial and surely the favourites will take that into consideration perfectly.

The Favourites

Filippo Ganna – Time-trial world champion, needs no introduction. In theory the man to beat, he’s got the form and the distance is ideal for him, the question mark lies on if he will thrive on the headwind section as he’s got strong competition.

Stefan Bissegger – That is Stefan Bissegger the Swiss, a breakthrough last year and one of the best time-trialists in the peloton, a rider who should also thrive in these conditions, but will he have the power to beat Ganna?

Mikkel Bjerg – Not a name to be ignored, he saved his legs today and has the raw power to fly over a course like this, his only problem is that the competition sees the very best in the world.

Besides these three I don’t think anyone will be near the fight for the stage win. The likes of Tadej Pogacar, João Almeida and Tom Dumoulin can and are expected to be near the top places and very possibly going into a Top3 on the stage which would be great for their GC stint. Others like Johan Price-Pejtersen, Luke Plapp, Neilson Powless, Jos van Emden, Thymen Arensman, Alex Dowsett and Andreas Leknessund are all riders who should be around the Top10 and with several of these names filling it.

Inside The Bus

This morning I talk to…

#105 Michal Kwiatkowski – Take it easy, you’re not here for the GC so save yourself to help Adam tomorrow.

#64 Patrick Konrad – It’ll be a tricky time-trial with the pacing, it’ll be crucial to ride well in order to go into the mountains well positioned, Jebel Jais suits you well. When you’ve got the tailwind make sure to keep the speed high but without spending too much, the differences will be made in the final kilometers into the headwind and there you need to be as aerodynamical as possible and have consistent and very high power until the very last meter.

#92 Matteo Badilatti – Let’s see, the list of GC contenders isn’t too big so you may have a good overall by the end of the race, no crosswinds yet is good for us as you are in contention, make sure you save your legs for the final kilometers of the TT, it’s short so you won’t loose much time, all about limiting the losses as much as possible.

Prediction Time

⭐⭐⭐Ganna, Bissegger

⭐⭐Bjerg, Pogacar

⭐Almeida, Dumoulin, Pejtersen, Plapp, Leknessund

Ganna, Bissegger and Bjerg were the Top3 last year in the podium of this very same TT. I think the same will happen, and I don’t think the order will change, it will be very hard but I think Ganna still takes it.

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