Tirreno-Adriatico 2022 – Stage 4 Preview

By @EchelonsHub

It was a day for a bunch sprint however we have had more fireworks than expected. An attack by Pogacar over the intermediate sprint caused some riders like Alaphilippe, Soler and Hart to move across and put the peloton under stress. Everything came back together though and the bunch sprint became a reality, with Caleb Ewan taking the win in the sprint over Arnaud Démare and Olav Kooij.

Positive: Ewan taking his third win of the season. Whether or not the 3 seconds were worth Pogacar’s effort I don’t know but he seems to be doing whatever he wants with ease so there shouldn’t be fatigue with this.

Negative: Nizzolo and Cavendish missing out on the sprint, Sagan DNS due to a flu.

The Route

Stage 4 is an affair for the puncheurs and the climbers. Although a lot of riders will fancy their shot at a breakaway, this day has the potential to be quite explosive and will be a warm up for the GC battle, we should see which riders are in for the overall classification win at the end of the race.

The first 37 kilometers of the stage barely have a flat meter to it, which the grand majority being uphill which will make the start quite hard and may allow for a strong group to get away and have their chances of going for the stage win and possibly a leader’s jersey.  After the initial hilly phase the peloton will gently come down to the final circuit which will take place in the streets of Bellante.

With 41 and 21 kilometers to the finish the peloton will ride through the finish line, and will have perfect knowhow of how the final ascent is before tackling it for the final time. It’s not a brute, 4.1Km at 6% average gradient actually makes for a balanced effort, where many different riders will be within a shot of the victory, and we should see a big-ring climb all the way to the finish.

Despite being rather consistent it does feature a couple of ramps above 10%, one of them being at the start and the other with 400 meters to go which will definitely be spots where some riders will struggle more. A final sprint? A late attack? Both scenarios are perfectly legitimate.

The Weather

Wind shouldn’t affect the stage. More towards the Adriatic there will be a slight northeastern breeze, mostly a tailwind at the final ascent if it’s felt.

Breakaway chances: 20%

It’s not impossible, the general uphill start to the day should be favourable for a strong group to go up the road, but honestly I think that there will be teams interested in putting on a chase to go for the stage win.

The Favourites

Tadej Pogacar – Honestly, I don’t see how he can be beaten at the time being. Form is on point, climbing is superior to everyone else and sprint is essentially superior to all his rivals. He has won uphill sprints this season, I think only if he’s surprised will he loose this one.

Julian Alaphilippe & Remco Evenepoel – On paper this is a very good stage for the duo. With it’s shallow gradients, this will be a climb that Remco Evenepoel will very much appreciate and can take advantage of the team’s numerical strength. Has Alaphilippe recovered from his crash at Strade Bianche? If so, he can challenge Pogacar surely, and he will likely have the task to follow him and try to save his bullets for the sprint.

Benoit Cosnefroy – Are the climbs too long for him? Possibly, but he’s got form, Pogacar won’t be gapped, Cosnefroy is one of the few riders who has the explosiveness that can challenge him.

The final climbs are unlikely to see gaps, but a sprint for the line in a reduced group. On paper you could see the likes of Quinn Simmons, Mikkel Honoré, Warren Barguil and Tim Wellens benefit from an easier race, decided in the final meters as they all have a decent sprint which can be quite useful in this finish.

If the race is pushed hard over the ascents and it becomes more of a climber festival then Enric Mas, Jonas Vingegaard, Tao Hart, Richard Caparaz, Wilco Kelderman, Pello Bilbao,  Miguel Ángel Lopez, Jakob Fuglsang and Giulio Ciccone can play a bigger role towards the end, and perhaps find the space to surprise and take the win with a late attack.

Inside The Bus

This morning I talk to…

#112 Arnaud Démare – You did good today Arnaud, showed you have the legs to still take wins at the highest level. We have a final stage that suits you, in the hills and mountains now we take it easier, to rest.

#54 Davide Gabburo – I’ll tell you the same I’ve told most of the guys, we got the invitation to this race and we have to make ourselves shown. Be in breakaways, attack, seek KOM jersey, tomorrow will be a hard start but you will all except for Sacha be taking turns attacking and making sure we’re represented in front. Getting KOM points and surviving for as long as possible is the priority.

#96 Jonathan Caicedo – You will be a key domestique for Rigo and Mark. We don’t have the responsibility to work here so you just have to stay in the wheels for as long as you can, keep them sheltered and well positioned when possible, get them water towards the end if they need.

Prediction Time

⭐⭐⭐ Pogacar

⭐⭐Alaphilippe, Evenepoel, MA.Lopez, Ciccone

⭐Cosnefroy, Barguil, Wellens, Mas, Vingegaard, Hart, Carapaz, Kelderman, Bilbao, Fuglsang

I don’t see how Tadej Pogacar can loose this honestly. He is yet to show any resemblence of weakness this season, until he doesn’t I’ll consider him favourite for most rough stages.

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Rúben Silva

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