2022 Tour of the Alps – Stage 2 Preview

By @EchelonsHub

Geoffrey Bouchard has taken his first professional victory today in the opening stage of the Tour of the Alps after a successful breakaway, working with and then dropping his companions in the last 25 kilometers to just barely survive the incoming peloton. Pello Bilbao and Romain Bardet completed the podium behind, taking some bonus seconds. 

Positive: Bouchard has had a very special day, one he won’t ever forget. 

Negative: Nothing to note, the GC riders arrived together with any meaningful absence as expected.

The Route

The second day of the race features quite the start, one which you will typically not see in any race which wants sprinters present. It is a stage that can play out for the GC, however if so the moves mandatorily have to come from far.

At the start of the stage maybe? If it doesn’t happen its because the riders choose not to, because the opening 22 kilometers are all uphill into the 2000 meter-mark with tough gradients. A strong group will go up the road, the question lies on whether it will include riders that want to take a strong result in the GC or not, which will then dictate what happens afterwards. 

If it doesn’t go there, the Passo Mendola is another spot where it may. Again, such an understated ascent, it’s a traditional Alpine pass with tremendous distance and constant hard gradients. It summits with 50 kilometers to go, however it is the most logic place to attack the stage.

After a small descent the riders will go up the uncategorized Passo delle Palade which is 13 kilometers long at around 4% average. If the race is harshly attack, with no doubt this ascent can do some damage, however the gradients aren’t rough and slipstreaming is very present. Besides, any rider that goes up the previous mountains in front will surely not be put into serious unconfort here, it summits with 26 kilometers to go though and antecedes a long descent that leads to the final 10 flat kilometers.

The Weather

Some higher temperatures and a small northern breeze. Although it could possibly have a headwind effect on the opening climb of the day, the final one too, I think it’ll be rather covered. 

Breakaway chances: 20%

An all-out GC attack is quite possible at the start, although that could make it quite difficult for a break to succeed because that would mean it’s thoroughly chased down. A breakaway without any GC candidates going up the road won’t succeed, as Bahrain and INEOS look way too strong and looked too aggressive today to not attack tomorrow.

I rate it as 20% as, there is the chance that a leading group goes over the first climb of the day with riders from those teams, which would indeed be threatening to the stage (at the very least).

The Favourites

Bahrain – Pello Bilbao looked good today and is in form. Bahrain have the cards clearly, as Mikel Landa will enjoy the long mountains and Santiago Buitrago is also taking a step up this year to ride alongside the best. They have the numbers, let’s see how they play it out.

INEOS – Because so do INEOS, aswell with three co-leaders. Richie Porte, Pavel Sivakov and Eddie Dunbar, perhaps more reliable than the Bahrain judging by today’s performance. They also want to attack and have the numbers, everyday can be crucial for the GC and they won’t want to miss out on that.

Miguel Ángel López – Astana didn’t look good today, but to be fair it is López who will need to perform in the mountains. The climbs are long and steep just as he likes, but he needs to separate himself from the possibility of being attacked by INEOS and Bahrain afterwards, a very tricky affair for him. 

Romain Bardet & Thymen Arensman – Bardet finished third today, with Arensman also looking good. The duo has been working together towards the Giro and this is the kind of stage where I think they can do good, as long as the race isn’t harshly attacked in the big mountain passes. With the rolling climbing, descending and sprinting ahead, it does favour them. 

Michael Storer – Raced to 9th today, it’s the second day of the season in which I’ve seen him near the front, and knowing how strong of a climber he is at his best, he must be considered. Groupama have Thibaut Pinot and Attila Valter here aswell who can both play a crucial role, however Storer is better equipped I’d reckon.

EF – Esteban Chaves and Jonathan Caicedo looked good today, in the longer climbs tomorrow it’s fair to assume they’ll be riding towards the front. As for Hugh Carthy, I have expectations, but he has so far this year not shown his best level and I’m afraid he’s not there yet, but EF can certainly build on his form this week.

All this will be having in mind that Geoffrey Bouchard is in the lead. Although not a top climber, he can definitely defend himself against the best, but I’m afraid that being in the lead will prove to be a burden on him where teams will try to use their lack of responsibility to blow up the race. Outsiders can further be seen in the likes of Einer Rubio, Filippo Zana and Lennard Kamna.

Inside The Bus

This morning I talk to…

#13 Joe Dombrowski – Go over the first climb of the day in front, and make sure Lopez has company at least until the base of Mendola, since there he can ride on his own better. We have a good team, but not the best form it seems, ideally INEOS and Bahrain can block each other but we have to be very attempt, and try to keep Lopez company for as long as possible to prevent them from uniting against us.

#171 Florian Lipowitz – Let’s see how the start of the stage goes. Ideally you can go on a small breakaway, if you get over Mendola in front of the peloton surely you can have a strong stage result. Either ways, do your best, GC is possible, but if you see that won’t happen then switch off so that we can target breakaways in the coming days. 

#53 Esteban Chaves – Let’s play it calm Esteban. With you, Jonathan and Hugh, we have to make sure we cover moves and never have to be chasing. We must play with numbers, even if the form isn’t the best, but you looked good today and from you personally I expect a strong performance alongside the best. 

Prediction Time

⭐⭐⭐Bilbao, Sivakov, MA.Lopez

⭐⭐Buitrago, Landa, Porte, Dunbar, Bardet, Storer

⭐ Arensman, Pinot, Valter 

I think Pello Bilbao will win the stage, he’s looking sharp and his sprint is on point, but the descending can also have an influence on the stage that absolutely benefits him. I think this will be a battle between the teams trying to use their numbers, and Bahrain are well covered. 

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