2022 Giro d’Italia – Stage 5 Preview

By @EchelonsHub

Stage four went to a breakaway, with all the expected big names present in front, leading to both stage and pink jersey to be decided within the front riders. There was a big battle on the slopes of Mount Etna, but Lennard Kamna emerged victorious as he managed to catch up with Juan Pedro López who had attacked earlier in the climb and sprinted to the win. The Spaniard has however jumped into the race lead. 

Positive: Kamna taking the win, Lopez jumping into the lead. 

Negative: Miguel Ángel López abandoned with hip pain, and with Vincenzo Nibali loosing time, Astana sustained very heavy losses. Tom Dumoulin cracked out of GC contention, Guillaume Martin and Tobias Foss also lost important time unexpectedly. 

The Route

From Messina to Catania. The fifth day of racing is the second of two in Sicily, and it’s a very interesting stage which can see different scenarios succeed. Not a brutal day, but the first half of the stage is relatively hard and can see a dangerous group go up the road. The first kilometers of the stage are very rolling, and the peloton will then go up a long ascent. 

It summits with around 100 kilometers to go, however it’s quite a long ascent. Gradients are very constant, but the pace has to be reduced to make sure the sprinters are riding well within the peloton, as it will be a very long effort. A gap can grow to dangerous dimensions, and with a technical descent leading into just 75 kilometers to go, it can make for a challenge for the sprinter teams.

If a bunch sprint happens – which I must mention, is still very likely – it will be on the streets of Messina. The finale isn’t overly technical, however it’s not a walk in the park. Tight corners with 1.3 kilometers to go and then 800 will lead the riders onto the finish straight. 

The Weather

Small breeze from northwest. Headwind early in the day, and a crosswind after the big descent of the day. As for the sprint it may come as a headwind if exposed, but all these won’t be crucial as the force won’t be excessive. 

Breakaway chances: 10%

The sprinters should have a lot of interest in controlling the race early on, not to allow a strong group to go up the road. The climb is interesting, but it will never be excessively hard, so even if some sprinters are dropped, there will be teams interested in pushing the pace and carry the chances of a bunch sprint. 

The Favourites

Caleb Ewan – A day that will suit him better, perhaps the non-technical headwind finish is exactly what he needs to grab a win, which he clearly has the form to achieve. 

Mark Cavendish – He’s showed good legs in the opening bunch sprint, and he will keep having a strong leadout for the flat finishes. He’s clearly got problems in the climbs, however if no-one makes a move the Briton is capable of going for a second one. 

Arnaud Démare – He seemed to lack the total power in the last finale to beat Cavendish, but every day is different and Démare will be on the hunt for a win, together with his strong leadout. 

Biniam Girmay – Positioning is usually a problem for him, however he was in good position for stage three and finished in a good position. With the climbing aspect added to the ascent, it’s a good day for Girmay to fight for a win. 

In the riders who may struggle with the uphill, the likes of Cees Bol and Alberto Dainese may be under difficulty if someone pushes on the pace. On the opposite side, the likes of Mathieu van der Poel, Vincenzo Albanese, Filippo Fiorelli, Andrea Vendrame and Magnus Cort Nielsen may enjoy the climbing and (besides van der Poel) have their teams push the pace so as to raise the chances of going for a stage win, in a slightly thinned down field. 

That leaves us still with the likes of Fernando Gaviria, Giacomo Nizzolo, Simone Consonni, Phil Bauhaus and Edward Theuns as contenders for a Top3, more perhaps if they find the right opportunity. 

Inside The Bus

This morning I talk to…

#98 Julius van den Berg – Order of the day is to keep Hugh safe. Magnus doesn’t seem to be interested yet on the bunch sprints, so we’ll focus on keeping our GC goal well and alive. 

#28 Oscar Riesebeek – We don’t have the responsibility to work today, so let’s just sit in. Ideally, we’ll have van der Poel available for the bunch sprint. 

#106 Mirco Maestri – Let’s give it a shot Mirco, it’s the kind of day where we could eventually surprise, so we should have at least one or two of you guys in the front. Attack early, ride calmly throughout the day, and really start pushing after the descent is finished, all about time management in a breakaway – besides the exposure and points we’ll get. 

Prediction Time

⭐⭐⭐Ewan, Cavendish, Démare

⭐⭐Gaviria, Girmay, Bauhaus

⭐Nizzolo, Consonni, Theuns, Mareczko, van der Poel, Albanese, Vendrame

I think Caleb Ewan will finally take the win he’s been fighting for this race, even if he resists likely Cavendish will suffer very much in the climb, and Ewan will have a favourable sprint for his capacity. 

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