2022 Giro d’Italia – Stage 7 Preview

By @EchelonsHub

It was an incredibly calm day in the peloton, with only one rider going up the road, which then gave way to a very fast finale in Scalea. Once again, several leadouts struggling to get into position with the tremendously dangerous final kilometer. A photofinish sprint decided the outcome of the day, as Arnaud Démare just barely managed to go over Caleb Ewan in the final sprint, taking his second consecutive win. Ewan and Mark Cavendish completed the podium.  

Positive: Démare, taking a second very important win and extending his lead in the points classification.  

Negative: DSM completely botched the sprint, as Dainese took out Bol in the final meters – alongside Fernando Gaviria.

The Route

Stage 7 of the Giro is one of the most tricky ones to predict. A wild day in the race, could be chaotic towards the end of the race, however still this early on it has the potential to blow the race to bits in the opening week. 196 kilometers and 4700 meters of climbing on the menu, well distributed throughout the day with a wide variety of climbs to be raced. 

The start of the stage is no pan-flat, however with 30 kilometers of racing, it starts to get very tough with a 9.4Km climb at 4.6%. After a fast descent comes the longest climb of the day – Monte Sirino – which is in total 32 kilometers long at 3.9%. This mountain however is the mix of three different climbs, split by flat/downhill sections. It can be a trap, however at the very least, a place where fatigue will settle in for most.  

The main climb of the day summits with 60 kilometers to go. There is already an uncategorized ascent leading up to it, however on the climb itself the averages reach almost 10% for over 6 kilometers. It is a brutal climb, and if it’s attacked it can dictate serious problems for many GC contenders.

With 38 kilometers to go off the descent of Viggiano there is a 5.8Km at 3.9% hilltop, and after another descent there is the ascent to La Sellata which is 8.2 kilometers long at 5.7%. Not the hardest, but after a hard day any climb can be damaging, this one summits with 23 kilometers to go.

The finale in Potenza is also far from easy, as the riders climb into the city’s historic center for an intermediate sprint with only 7 kilometers to go (1.9Km at 5.4%), and after riding through the city they will head into the final meters which also feature double-digit gradients just before the line.

The Weather

No rain, and a normal sunny day is expected, good weather.  

Breakaway chances: 65% 

With the outcome of the Etna stage I have no doubt similar may happen. With Juan Pedro Lopez, who will want to keep the pink jersey, there will be at least one team who will surely work to control a breakaway if there are threats. However, there are some riders who’ve lost time up to now, and it’s an incredibly hard day to control. If GC teams open up the fight from early the win will surely be behind, but if there is a conservative consensus I see the front riders succeeding.  

The Favourites 

Mathieu van der Poel  – Honestly, this day may be too hard for him. However he’s been saving himself, he’s got the form, and he’s shown on his best day he can climb well. With the punchy finale he’s capable of succeeding, both from a breakaway or a controlled peloton finale if Trek commits to controlling all attacks.  

Bahrain – There will be teams who can take advantage of their strength in numbers, and I think Bahrain can do quite a lot of damage in such a day. Pello Bilbao and Mikel Landa are riders who like to race aggressively, and Santiago Buitrago is also a wildcard at this point of the race. From a possible breakaway, Wout Poels is also a strong name to consider, so for sure they will be looking to succeed here.  

If I am to be honest, there are countless contenders for such a day, it really will depend on how the riders ride it. In Etna the GC group rode relatively conservative, but you could see how many riders were climbing at a very high level. Simon Yates, Richard Carapaz, João Almeida, Hugh Carthy and Guillaume Martin will be solo leaders, and perhaps because of that riders who will want to keep things together unless if things truly blow up. 

In that GC field, besides Bahrain, there are other teams with many numbers who can play them. BORA have Lennard Kamna in sight of the pink jersey, and the trio of Wilco Kelderman, Emanuel Buchmann and Jai Hindley who can be extremely dangerous in such a stage. DSM have Romain Bardet and Thymen Arensman, Movistar have Alejandro Valverde and Iván Sosa, all contenders if the attacks come.  

As for breakaway possibilities, they’re high, and whoever wins needs to be able to climb quite well. The likes of Simon Carr, Lorenzo Fortunato, David de la Cruz, Alessandro De Marchi, Felix Gall, Harold Tejada, Attila Valter, Jan Hirt, Filippo Zana are some of the riders who should have some freedom but also the climbing quality to thrive if they are on a good day. I will include Bauke Mollema here too, but only if Trek – Segafredo give him freedom, as keeping the lead within the team is likely to be a priority too – and I will on the way mention Giulio Ciccone, as Trek are a very particular situation.  

As for puncheurs, who could potentially go over the main climbs and be favoured towards the end, it’s also worthy to mention the likes of: Valerio Conti, Mauro Schmid, Diego Ulissi, Davide Formolo, Alessandro Covi, Biniam Girmay, Andrea Vendrame, Magnus Cort Nielsen and Lorenzo Rota. 

This is a day that can go in multiple ways. A stage which is very hard to predict, and that should be very exciting to follow.  

Inside The Bus 

This morning I talk to… 

#193 Cees Bol  – Not a day for you, both you and Alberto just try to hang tight in the grupetto when it forms and just make it through, better days will come.  

#197 Chris Hamilton – Not you Chris, you have to stay with Romain and Thymen. Thymen will be helping, if needed, but ideally we want to keep both of them in GC contention and for that we will need a calm race along the hardest climbs. The final hills even suit them, so we may go on the attack, but your job is to stay with them for as long as possible, help with positioning but no need to push the pace or make a move yourself.  

#132 Jenthe Biermans – It will be a brutal day Jenthe, make sure you stay with Giacomo and get him through the mountains, get yourself through aswell as we’ll need you for the upcoming sprints.  

Prediction Time 

⭐⭐⭐Carr, De la Cruz, Formolo 

⭐⭐Bilbao, Carapaz, Kelderman, S.Yates, De Marchi, Mollema 

⭐Landa, Poels, van der Poel, Almeida, G.Martin, Buchmann, Bardet, Valverde, Fortunato, Hirt, Girmay, Ulissi, Covi

Honestly, I can’t wrap my head around how this stage will go. The GC riders are clearly willing to let strong climbers go up the road, but will Trek? If Trek don’t chase hard Lopez may not be attacked, if they chase hard they will be attacked as the stage win will be up for grabs. They can send Mollema up the road but if there is a GC threat in there the plan may go down the drain. A lot of variables, in the middle of this chaos I choose Davide Formolo for a breakaway win.  

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