2022 Giro d’Italia – Stage 10 Preview
By @EchelonsHub
The first mountain stage has effectively delivered the drama that it promised, as big gaps were created at Blockhaus after a very hard stage. Jai Hindley won the final sprint in the front group, after the attacks proved unsuccessful to break six riders who arrived together at the finish. Hindley beat Romain Bardet and Richard Carapaz, as Juan Pedro López kept the pink jersey after a strong performance.
Positive: Hindley taking a stage win, Landa staying in front despite a late crash, Domenico Pozzovivo riding with the very best and Juan Pedro López staying the lead of the Giro.
Negative: Simon Yates, Wilco Kelderman and Giulio Ciccone absolutely lost the opportunity to fight for the GC. Big losses at the steep slopes, specially for Yates who has lost the opportunity at what is his final tilt at the Giro for the coming years.
The Route
Another tricky day in the Giro’s menu. The first 100 kilometers are pan-flat by the Adriatic sea, very easy to control on a normal day, but will there be teams interested in doing so? It will depend on how some riders feel, as this day can finish in a sprint, be fought between puncheurs/rouleurs, and everything inbetween.
As the riders head inland the race becomes a different beast, with plenty hilltops to tackle. The hardest of which with 67 kilometers to go (3Km at 6.9%). The decisive section of the stage comes in the final 40 kilometers to go.
40, 35 (1Km, 5%), 30 (2.7Km, 4.2%), 21 (1.9Km, 5.3%) will set things up. Attacks can be made, a hard pace can be implemented, or it can be a conservative ride if no-one has many ideas of attacking the race.
The final hilltop is Monsano, 1.7Km at 6.1% and it comes with a mere 9 kilometers to go. What will happen in it? The gradients definitely allow attacks, but I can only detail you what the riders will go through, their actions will dictate how the race will look like afterwards.
The finale in Jesi sees a fast descent into town. The final kilometer is essentially flat, however it does feature an average gradient of 2%, not something that is decisive, however if it comes down to a sprint of there is a solo rider trying to survive, every detail matters and the fact is that the gradients do rise slightly into the finish.
The Weather
Hot weather incoming, a bit different than what has been faced so far. A slight northern wind is also present, making it a headwind start, not favourable for breakaways.
Breakaway chances: 20%
At first I thought this would be a day very well suited to a breakaway, but taking into consideration some of the headliners in the race I expect a consistent chase to be put on early in the day. Besides, the pan-flat start should be easy to control, and the headwind will make it complicated for a breakaway to succeed.
The Favourites
Mathieu van der Poel – A day that suits him very well. With the pan-flat start he surely won’t go on an adventure, as the goal of Alpecin should be to control the stage and then be part of the moves in the final ascents – possibly to a sprint finish, the uphill grades will be good for the Dutchman.
Biniam Girmay – Intermarché are a team with a goal and surely they will commit very much to Girmay’s pursuit of stages and the points classification. This is an ideal opportunity for the Eritrean and surely he won’t fail to deliver.
Magnus Cort Nielsen, Vincenzo Albanese and Andrea Vendrame will be three sprinters hoping for a hard race, but one where a sprint finale is still the order. The likes of Simone Consonni and Davide Ballerini are definitely cards, however not riders who are as comfortable with the uphills where attacks are sure to come. As for Caleb Ewan and Arnaud Démare, in their best day I could see them survive, but I don’t think that will be the case here.
Some puncheurs may have an opportunity towards the end, it’s a relatively open finale and some may put in a dig to try and net a big stage win. Mauro Schmid is a big name to consider, definitely in great form. Alessandro Covi and Davide Formolo will have a say, as strong puncheurs who are looking for stage wins in the race, Lennard Kämna, Thymen Arensman and Attila Valter.
Inside The Bus
This morning I talk to…
#4 Richie Porte – No big effort to make today. We aren’t planning on having you finish on top, but for now let’s stay in contention for the GC. Richie is the priority, but today is a day to be in the wheels, just make sure you don’t loose time and arrive safely.
#46 Wout Poels – A day to take it easier Wout. Throughout the day it’s a priority to protect Mikel and make sure he’s safe, but when the pace starts going up you should knock off the pace, so as to save yourself for stages where you can go for a win and/or help the guys in the mountains.
#176 Pieter Serry – We’ll be taking care of Mauro and Davide today. No attacking, just following the wheels as we won’t win by pushing the pace. Mauro can have an opportunist attack in the finale, whilst Davide will hope for a sprint, in either case you stay with them as long as possible in the front.
Prediction Time
⭐⭐⭐van der Poel, Girmay
⭐⭐Schmid, Cort Nielsen, Albanese, Vendrame
⭐Consonni, Ballerini, Covi, Formolo, Ewan, Démare, Bilbao, Kämna
For this stage I do trust Mathieu van der Poel. A very good opportunity, the stage should be selective enough, Intermarche will be an ally for the sprint at the very least, and positioning shouldn’t be an issue as the hills will be ridden hard.
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