2022 Giro d’Italia – Stage 11 Preview

By @EchelonsHub

A chaotic stage at the Giro d’Italia, where as expected the breakaway was easily controlled because of the weather conditions, however the late attacks were very complicated. The finall hill saw several attacks, as did the final descent. Intermarché – Wanty – Gobert Matériaux took advantage of it’s surprising depth to be able to close all attacks in the final kilometers, and took things to a sprint. Biniam Girmay took a dominant sprint win, launching early in the slight uphill gradients and beating Mathieu van der Poel in a dramatic finale. Vincenzo Albanese finished third, whilst the GC contenders arrived together in the reduced peloton. 

Positive: Girmay taking an impressive win but above all Intermarché with a very strong collective performance which has earned them a big win. 

Negative: Nothing too important, you could say that Kamna, Porte and Sosa lost time on a relatively easy day but they are unlikely to play a role in the GC.

The Route

A classic, the 11th stage of the Giro will ride through the plains of Emilia-Romagna. There isn’t much to report here, the stage is pan-flat and will ride along many big cities of the region in a relatively straight line for 203 kilometers. In most places, this would be a very boring day, but those looking to enjoy the scenery will love the broadcast, and the riders will enjoy a much deserved easier day in order to have the legs to make the remainder of the race exciting. 

The finale in Reggio Emilia won’t be technical, but it will be an urban sprint of which there haven’t been many throughout the race. Nothing too dangerous to report, should be a standard sprint finish.

The Weather

The wind will be coming from the southeast which directly relates to the direction of the stage. A moderately strong tailwind incoming throughout most of the day. In the final kilometers tension can be quite high as there will be crosswind sections and they can get quite exposed. A very fast day is expected, with danger for crashes. 

Breakaway chances: 30%

If the breakaway play it smart and the peloton lets a big leash to the escapees it can get dangerous. The day is pan-flat, easy to control on paper, however if in front they play it smart, riding easy throughout the day and then accelerating towards the end to try and survive, there are chances. 

The Favourites

Arnaud Démare – So far so good, Démare won’t have the pressure to take another win, but should have the confidence necessary to do so. Groupama have done quite well so far, and they will benefit from the loss of leadout men from the two rival teams. 

Caleb Ewan – Form is not looking too good, as Ewan has noticeably struggling in the climbs since his crash on day one – although it may not be related. Here it will be pan flat, perhaps his last chance, and he’ll hope to be in the right position for the sprint once again so as to get his first win at the Giro. 

Mark Cavendish – With no Michael Morkov I reckon Cavendish’s work will be much more complicated, as that is a big reason why Quick-Step’s leadouts are so successful. Nevertheless, with Bert van Lerberghe and Davide Ballerini there will still be an opportunity to deal damage. 

The main competitors, you will see very similar names fill up the remaining spots in the Top10, and perhaps as the final opportunity for some, there will be added risks taken in order to ensure a strong result and perhaps a win. 

There are some riders who’ve shown the legs to battle for a stage win. Fernando Gaviria, Phil Bauhaus, Biniam Girmay and Giacomo Nizzolo will all be hoping for an ideal position in the sprint, and perhaps be favoured by the reduced firepower in some of the strongest leadouts mentioned above. 

Team DSM will be hoping to get their leadout working properly this time once again, it may be their final opportunity. Whether Alberto Dainese or Cees Bol will be the option is unknown, however they have the chance to fight for the win. Simone Consonni, Edward Theuns, Vincenzo Albanese, Andrea Vendrame, Magnus Cort Nielsen.

In case of a breakaway you don’t need to expect an overly strong group in order to be able to succeed, but I’ll throw some names which should be eyeing the stage and could in theory do relatively well in such a day: Lawrence Naesen, Dries de Bondt, Alex Dowsett, Matthias Brandle, Edoardo Affini, Pascal Eenkhoorn, Will Barta, Chris Juul-Jensen and Matteo Sobrero. 

Inside The Bus

This morning I talk to…

#132 Jenthe Biermans – We’ll tell some of the guys to try and get in a breakaway, Alex and Matthias. As for you, you can stay attempt but likely the order of the day is to stay in the pack and save yourself for the finale, hopefully we’ll have a leadout to help Giacomo battle for the win, him and Zabel are to be protected throughout the day. 

#33 David de la Cruz – No stress for today, it’s a long stage but it’ll move fast. Just stay in the back of the bunch, save your legs for other days where we will have goals of succeeding. 

#202 Dario Cataldo – It won’t be an easy day Dario, we have a pink jersey to defend and Juan isn’t exactly a specialist in this kind of race situation. The goal is to arrive to the finish with the main GC contenders, either in a normal peloton or reduced one, you will have the responsibilities to do that work early on, we have some rouleurs that will guide Juan if things blow up, you have to help throughout the day and make sure they are fresh. 

Prediction Time

⭐⭐⭐Démare, Ewan, Cavendish

⭐⭐Gaviria, Bauhaus, Girmay, Nizzolo

⭐Bol, Dainese, Consonni, Theuns, Vendrame, Cort Nielsen, Affini

A third win for Arnaud Démare is what I believe will happen, however it’s a pan-flat finale and it can be all about luck in that finale so you can expect a big fight for the win with several names involved. 

Zweeler is a fantasy sports game that includes many sports and cycling is no exception. I ask that you check it out, if you register with the link below you will not only be joining an exciting game but will also be personally supporting me and my work, and allow me to make more content for you!

Tomorrow’s race has prizes of at least €500 and an entry fee of only €5. Make good use of your knowledge!

https://zweeler.com/game/cycling/FantasyGirodItalia2022stage11/main.php?ref=790

Rúben SilvaFollow us on Twitter and InstagramJoin us on facebook: Ciclismo Internacional

Copyright © 2012-2022 Ciclismo Internacional. All Rights Reserved