Tour of Oman 2016 Preview

By David Hunter

We have one final race in the middle east, before the peloton heads back to Europe. It’s the 7th edition of the Tour, possibly the last. The organisers have really stepped it up and delivered the most challenging race, in it’s short history.

The route has a little bit of everything:- 2 stages for sprinters, 3 for puncheurs and 1 mountaintop finish. I love the look of the parcours! It really is a massive shame that the field is significantly weaker, this year. We don’t have Tinkoff, Movistar, FDJ, Trek, Sky, Orica or IAM. It does open the door for some of the pro-continental teams, who will be delighted to get a chance to shine.

Stage 1

This stage was introduced last year and it was a big success. Cancellara took the win from a small group of favourites. The two climbs proved to be much harder than anticipated, really suiting the puncheurs. It should be the same again, with Van Avermaet and EBH looking to continue their good form. The climb of Al Jissah is 2.5km at 8%, so tough enough to make a selection, if the riders really attack it. A sprinter on a good day, could just hang on.

Stage 2

This is a new stage for the race and an exciting one at that! A lot of the riders will love the chance of having another uphill finish in the race. The climb is short and steep, perfect for GC riders and punchers. It comes in at around 2.8km at 6.5%. It’s not hard enough to split the GC contenders and easy enough for the puncheurs to hit it hard.

Stage 3

One for the sprinters and we have quite a few of them here: Kristoff, Jans, Looij, Hutarovich, EBH, Bennett, Drucker, Canola, Hofland, Stepniak, Modolo and Guardini. Katusha arrive after dominating the sprints in Qatar, they will be full of confidence.

Stage 4

The usual stage to settle the GC, as the peloton head up the Green Mountain. It’s been made slightly longer this year, 7.5km at 10.7%, a real test of form so early in the season.

Stage 5

Another favourite stage for the organisers, the lap circuit ending at the Ministry of Housing. It really is a demanding day in the saddle with three difficult ascents of Bousher Al Amerat.

Stage 6

Despite a couple of challenges, this should be another day for the sprinters. The climbs are steep but not going to worry Kristoff.

Contenders

The GC will be heavily influenced by the Green Mountain, but stages 1, 2 and 5 are also very important.

Jurgen Van Den Broeck – Just signed for Katusha and a move can really inspire a rider. He has bags of potential but not done much for a few years. Will be interesting to see what impact his move has had on him.

Eduardo Sepulveda – A good performance in San Luis secured him a stage and second on GC. He is a solid climber but will not look forward to the punchy stages. Should be targeting a top 10 position on GC, top 5 at the very best.

Tom Dumoulin – First race of the season. Said that he had a good January, but a difficult February. On paper, this is a brilliant race for him, but probably too early in his season. Only having 5 teammates will also be an issue.

Dan Martin – This is a great race for him. Already took a win in Spain and will be hoping for a big performance here. Has certainly benefited from moving teams. No wonder, he’s now with a proper outfit!

Davide Rebellin – Still mentioned as a contender, even at 44 years old. Had a solid start in Dubai, finishing 9th on GC. Not bad considering it was dominated by sprinters. All the demanding stages will suit him, as he loves steep gradients.

Rui Costa – Now looking to focus on shorter stage races, after seemingly giving up on Grand Tours. He was 14th in Dubai and should be ahead of some of the other challengers. He will be hoping to peak for Paris-Nice, which is only three weeks away. A serious contender for the title.

Vincenzo Nibali – Will he be in form!? Always the question we have to ask, outside of Grand Tours. If he is, this is an ideal race for him. As a tremendous one day racer, he will love stages 1 and 5.

Domenico Pozzovivo – 7th in the TDU was a good start to the season. He will be co-captain with Romain Bardet, but the Frenchman only has one day of racing in 2016. Pozzovivo should really be capable of the podium.

Richie Porte – Has a chance to lead BMC and show his new bosses what he’s got. The Green Mountain will be good for him, I’m not too sure about the punchy stages. If he can finish with the lead group on those days, he has a great chance of getting on the podium.

Analysis

With some of the big teams missing, the list of potential winners is a little shorter than usual. Nibali is the class act of the field. He ended 2015 in form that could be claimed as the best of his career. He is riding the Giro, which means he needs to peak earlier than usual. In previous seasons, he has had a very easy start and only began to look good in June. 2016 has to be different. He went to San Luis and did poorly on the first mountain stage, but much better on the second. Since then he’s been away training and should be flying. He has to start the race as the overwhelming favourite.

Of the others, Pozzovivo should handle the Green Mountain better than the others. He has been here before, finishing 6th on the climb in 2014 and 12th in 2012. If he continues that pattern, then he’s in for a big win! The Italian does lack a finishing sprint, making it very difficult for him to win races. That will hurt him in stages 1, 2 and 5, when others pick up bonus seconds. Looking at the other climbers, he will be expecting a big result.

If Bardet is also fit and flying(doubtful as he targets the Tour), AG2R will have great options. Bardet is a rider who will look to take advantage in the punchy stages. He is a great stage racer, always ready to attack and exploit weakness.

Dan Martin took an impressive win in Valenciana, but was distanced by 1 minute on the climb to Xorret del Cati. Considering the steep gradients of this race, he needs to have better form if he really wants to compete with the top climbers. Even if he does poorly on the Green Mountain, taking a stage win is well within his grasp.

What about Richie Porte? He won the Willunga stage in the TDU, but he has his eyes focused on the Tour de France. If he really wants to start that race as a team leader, he needs to win some of the preparation races. Looking at the rest of the field, he has a good chance of the podium.

Prediction Time

Has to be the Shark of Messina. Vincenzo Nibali to take a rare win in February!

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