Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne 2016 preview

By David Hunter

Kuurne – Kuurne 203km

The sprinter’s classic. This is one for the quick men, as long as the weather is good. As soon as we get rain and wind, it turns it a battle of the fittest.

The issue for the puncheurs is the main climbs happen too far from home. I love the Oude Kwaremont, it’s my favourite climb, but it crests with 85.2km remaining. There is just too much road left.

Look at 2015, a massive group got away on the Kwaremont, but it included all of the main sprinters. They sent their men to work, but the collective work of a few teams behind was enough to bring them back.

For the break to survive, the peloton must be small. For the peloton to be small, the weather must be poor.

The wind will be coming from the east, acting as a tailwind on the run for home. That is good news for the break, but the wind isn’t too strong, bad news for the break.

This year, it looks like being a sprint. We have plenty of sprinters to talk about:-

Peter Sagan – with Blythe, Gatto and Bennati, Sagan arrives with a strong looking lead-out. Considering how far off Gaviria he was in San Luis, it would be a shock to see him sprinting to glory. He should be faster than then, so the podium is a possibility.

Elia Viviani – was a solid 3rd in 2015. Compared to the others, his lead-out train is a little weak, with Puccio and Rowe his final helpers. He doesn’t always like a lot of help, just as well really! Was looking good in Dubai and has a great chance of challenging for the win.

Jens Debusschere – without Greipel, Jens gets his chance to sprint. No Sieberg or Henderson, this is going to be tough for him. Was put in a great position in 2015, but faded and only finished 7th.

Alexander Kristoff – so strong just now and with an amazing lead-out too. Launched too early in 2015 and was pipped by Cavendish. Will have learned from that experience and should wait until 150m before going for his sprint.

Tom Boonen – will be interesting to see if he goes on the attack, or backs himself in the sprint. Was leading out Cavendish, in 2015, but is now the fastest Etixx rider. Been here many times and his experience will be crucial in the sprint. Has an outside shot of the podium.

Jean-Pierre Drucker – 6th in 2015 and a rider who likes to sprint after a tough day. Another top 10 should be certain but hard to improve on last year’s result. He did crash hard in Omloop, so might be a little sore.

Matteo Pelucchi – not really the best route for him. Would expect him to be quite fatigued before the sprint. Form is improving but this might be too tough for him.

Arnaud Demare – great to see him back on form.This is a race that suits him very well, but he’ll need good positioning in the sprint.

Caleb Ewan – fantastic to see Orica bring Caleb to the race, his first of the big Belgian races. Orica always position him well in the sprints, but he will miss Matt Hayman, who was injured in Omloop.

Dylan Groenewegen – had a superb start to the season, he’s got a lot of people talking. This is his type of race.

Giacomo Nizzolo – really good to see him racing. He’s had a strong start to 2016 and can easily cope with a race like this. His lead-out train is also impressive, with Stuyven, Theuns and Van Poppel.

Nikias Arndt – first race of his season, so has a few question marks over him. Will get plenty of sprint opportunities now that Giant are without Kittel, Degenkolb and Mezgec.

Sam Bennett – his time in Oman didn’t go exactly to plan. He’s not managed a win yet in 2016, but has finished in the top 5 on 5 occasions. Another sprinter who will look forward to this type of race.

Roy Jans – been the surprise sprinter so far. His 3 podiums have been a great return for him, especially as he struggled against the top sprinters in 2015. His team look strong, he looks strong, maybe another podium for him.

Yauheni Hutarovich – has been 2nd here in 2011 and 2012. Such an inconsistent rider these days, it is impossible to know what he’s going to deliver.

Bert Van Lerberghe – a great 2nd place in Andalucía, announced him to less knowledgeable cycling fans! He’s strong and fast. Should be capable of a top 10 result.

Nacer Bouhanni – took a controversial win in Andalucía. He won’t need to be pushed up any climbs here! Was in a good position in 2015, but then did amazingly not to crash into the barriers. He will be supported by his usual cast of helpers.

Ray Kreder – another sprinter who has started the season very well. He finished on the podium in Valenciana and Andalucía. A real sign that he might be rediscovering the form that saw him sign for Garmin Sharp, back in 2012.

Steele Von Hoff – One Pro Cycling are delighted to be here. The Aussie is their fast man, but he hasn’t delivered much in 2016. I don’t see it starting here.

As much as the sprinters are important, their lead-outs are crucial. The final 5km of the race are very demanding, often affected by wind and late attackers. Lotto managed to time it to perfection, in 2015, who will take control of the sprint this year?

We have a number of fast looking lead-out trains. Katusha, Tinkoff, Orica, Trek, Bora and Cofidis all have teams that could dominate the closing stages. It’s weird to see Trek arrive with 4 potential sprinters: Theuns, Stuyven, Bonifazio and Nizzolo.

Given their recent record, you would expect Katusha to be the team that controls the finale, but Tinkoff and Orica cannot be underestimated. Despite not having the longest train, Orica, always get it right. They time their attacks to perfection, never wasting energy too early. As Caleb Ewan is a “smaller” sprinter, they won’t be expected to work early in the race. Wait for Orica to come to the front with 3km remaining. Once they drop him off in position, we’ll see what he has left in his legs. No Matt Hayman is a huge loss for them.

Katusha don’t arrive with the same train that they took to Qatar and Oman. Kristoff will be looking towards Politt, Tsatevich, Bystrom, Morkov and Haller. Jacob Guarnieri is the big miss, but they have plenty of options to replace him. They will decide if they go for Morkov or Haller, I would take the Austrian. It’s still the best train here, by a distance.

Prediction Time

I think the Kwaremont break will be caught and we’ll get a sprint. Katusha have the best train and the fastest sprinter, this should be easy for Kristoff. I think that Viviani and Bouhanni will also make the podium.

David Hunter

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