Milan-Sanremo 2016 Preview

By David Hunter

Milan-Sanremo 291km

Welcome to the first monument of 2016.

The riders tackle the well worn road to Sanremo. At 291km, it’s a monster of a race.

Such an easy looking profile, but after so long in the saddle, the climbs really are a challenge for most riders. You are looking at the peloton only having 30 riders in it, after we finish with the Poggio.

As usual, the Cipressa and Poggio, are the two most important points of the race. The Cipressa is the harder of the two climbs, but cresting with 20km remaining means that attacks are not very popular. This year, I think we’ll see some big attacks at this point.

The Poggio looks easy, but someone will hit the front and line the bunch out. Last year, both Cavendish and Greipel were dropped at this point.

After the top of the Poggio, we have a fast descent. Hopefully we don’t see any crashes, it does give attacking riders one last chance of escaping the bunch. Once again, we finish on Via Roma, with a flat section of 2.5km. Not a huge amount of time to organise a lead-out, but with few men remaining you just hope you have a teammate to take you to the front.

2015

Just like in 2014, Luca Paolini was the most important man in the race. He managed to get Kristoff up the Cipressa, before leading the whole peloton all the way up the Poggio, although he couldn’t prevent a few attacks just before the top. Van Avermaet put in the best attack, but was followed by Sagan and Matthews, meaning he never really establish a gap. With 2km remaining, that man Paolini was at it again. He appeared on the front, with Kristoff behind, quite a stunning piece of riding. Kristoff launched his sprint too early, allowing Degenkolb to come from quite far back to take the win.

Sprinters

Alexander Kristoff – winner in 2014 and 2nd in 2015. He started the season with a bang, but did not do well in Paris-Nice. It wasn’t just him either, the much praised lead-out train didn’t function well and Kristoff left France without a win to his name. He’s missing his top man from both 2014 and 2015, that seriously dents his hopes. Which of his team will pull him up the climbs and take him back to the front for the sprint?

Nacer Bouhanni – had a tremendous Paris-Nice. Had one win taken away from him, but took another. His lead-out train looked great, better than the rest. For the first time Cofidis look set to move up into the elite league of sprinters. Christophe Laporte has been outstanding in his new role as number 2, but will he be around at the end of this race? No lead-out man, no win for Bouhanni.

Mark Cavendish – never write off Cavendish! As a former winner, Cavendish knows what is required to win this race. He was dropped on the Poggio, last year, but 2016 is a different year! Now with Dimension Data, he would dearly love to give them a big win. Can count upon the help of Nathan Haas and Edvald Boasson Hagen, deep into the race.

Fernando Gaviria – the young gun from Colombia. Started the season in sensational form, but this is his first MSR. He’s good, but not that good. It takes a few attempts before the legs get used to a race of this length. Saying that, Alaphilippe did manage to finish 2nd in LBL, in his neo pro season. Etixx clearly know how to get the best from their young stars.

Arnaud Demare – great win in Paris-Nice, after a tough day in the saddle. Quit the race early, to protect an injury ahead of this weekend. Can handle the terrain and the distance, but it would be a huge surprise to see him on the podium.

Niccolo Bonifazio – local rider, who finished 5th on debut in 2015. Grabbed a 2nd place in Paris-Nice, but hasn’t won a stage yet in 2016. I seriously doubt he’ll better his finish from last year.

Attackers

Michael Matthews – yes, I don’t have him as a sprinter. I will stick my neck out and say he cannot win the bunch sprint. What Matthews has to do is attack on the Poggio and remove some of the faster sprinters. He’s climbed the Poggio a ridiculous number of occasions, in preparation for this race. He, and Orica, really want a win. He must be bold!

Peter Sagan – the world champion falls into the same category as Matthews. No stranger to attacking, he also needs to distance the faster sprinters. Has the added advantage of being a tremendous descender and a bold rider. His form is good, but even more impressive considering he’s only operating at around 90%. Once he hits 100%, you’d better watch out.

Vincenzo Nibali – has started the season in tremendous form. Took his first monument win in 2015, in Il Lombardia, he would love to follow that up here. Due to a lack of a sprint, he must arrive solo to win the race.

Greg Van Avermaet – what a season he’s having. Very consistent in Qatar and Oman before winning in Omloop and Tirreno. This is the year for him to show what a rider he is. Van Avermaet will certainly win a monument in 2016, he just needs to decide which one. Considering his current form, he should strike now.

Edvald Boasson Hagen – another rider who has started the season in tremendous form. Dimension Data have the bases covered with him and Cavendish, hopefully he is given the freedom to follow the attacks.

Zdenek Stybar – winner of a tough stage in Tirreno, Stybar is looking strong just now. He packs a fast sprint too, so will be happy to take his chance in a small bunch kick.

Tony Gallopin – looked super attacking in Paris-nice, but was unrewarded. Lotto have no Greipel, so Gallo will be free to attack when he wants. A very classy rider who is destined for some more big wins.

Michal Kwiatkowski – form is picking up nicely for the Pole. Looking more and more impressive in Tirreno and seems about ready for a big performance. Sky would love their first monument win and he gives them a great chance.

Fabian Cancellara – the man of the moment. Last season for Fabian, he wants two monuments. Just you wait for his attack, he might go on the Poggio, the descent, or the last 2.5km. I’m not sure when he’ll attack, but he will. When he does, it will be enormous and hard to follow.

Weather

Looks like being a very nice day, we are due to get lots of sunshine and little wind. The weather will not be a factor this year.

Analysis

Sprint or no sprint? 

We’ve now had a bunch sprint for two consecutive years, mainly due to the efforts of Katusha. This year, there seems to be fewer teams who want to hold the race together. If we get a sprint, Kristoff is the huge favourite. Bouhanni will fancy his chances but I doubt he’ll have the numbers to keep it all together. With one dominant sprint team, the chances of a sprint are reduced.

Who wants a sprint?

Katusha, Cofidis and Dimension Data are the big teams looking for a sprint. Apart from Katusha, they are hardly big hitters.

Who doesn’t want a sprint?

It’s in the best interests of Tinkoff, Orica, Sky, Etixx, Trek, Astana and BMC to force a break on the Poggio. That is a big list of top teams.

What happens without Paolini?

Without the Italian, I struggle to see who will be around to chase down attacks, inside the final 3km. Katusha will certainly miss his presence and I think the race will too. His absence will allow some fireworks to go off on the Poggio.

Prediction Time

I don’t think we’ll get the same type of race as in previous years. There are too many teams that don’t want a sprint and we’ll see a small group escape on the Poggio. That small group will contain Sagan and Matthews, meaning that the others will not want to cooperate. On the descent a rider will escape and take a solo victory. Which rider? Has to be Fabian Cancellara.

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