Tour Down Under 2017 – Stage 1 Preview
By David Hunter
Unley – Lyndoch 145km
After the fun of the People’s Choice Classic, the TDU gets underway with a sprint stage.
The fight for the break will be fierce, with just one KOM point in the stage, the climb is 4.5km at 4%. The KOM jersey is a prize that many riders will want to fight for, especially those from Uni-SA. Hopefully Lucas Hamilton is their chosen breakaway rider, but it’s not always that easy!
Tactics
Both sprint points come far into the stage, so no need worrying about holding the bunch together. The break will go away early and then the sprinter teams will have to share the work at the front of the peloton. I expect Orica to get some help, especially with Trek riding for Edward Theuns.
The race will really come alive inside the final 20km. Despite a few climbs, this is going to be a big bunch sprint. Teams will fight for position inside the closing 10km and the pace will be very fast.
A lovely downhill run for home. Fast, fast, fast! The best lead-out train will put their man in a great position.
Weather
A very hot day in the peloton with temperatures reaching 36 degrees. The Aussies will love it, the Europeans will find it hard.
Contenders
Caleb Ewan – strolled through the People’s Choice Classic and is already in very good form. He’ll be very keen to add to his two stage wins from 2016 and his lead-out looks the best in the race. Orica pulled off a surprise by putting Roger Kluge in as the final man, Impey moved to position 3. Given the hot temperatures, we’ll have to wait and see if they stick with that formation for this stage. Whichever way round, they have the best train in the race.
Sam Bennett – finished very fast on Sunday, but a lead out would have been nice! He was following the wheel of Sagan, but it wasn’t a classic lead out. His strong finish was impressive and shows that he’s had a good winter. The Irishman is capable of beating Ewan, but it will be hard.
Peter Sagan – we’ll have to see what role Sagan fulfils, will he sprint or not? Sagan is a real team player and as this isn’t a target race for him, I would expect him to work for Bennett. Then again, he is the world champion and his team might just ask him to sprint. The race organisers and sponsors would love to see the rainbow jersey on the podium.
Mark Renshaw – he brings something the other sprinters don’t have, experience of the Tour Down Under. In his 15th edition, he knows exactly what to do and when to do it. He carefully followed the wheel of Ewan, on Sunday, until he was bumped off by Sagan. His 6th place wasn’t a great result and I would expect to see him bettering that in this stage.
Edward Theuns – Trek have a strong lead out, the second best in the race. With De Kort as final man, the Belgian has the chance of being in the right position with 200m to go. He was 5th on Sunday and he should be challenging for the podium. His confidence will also be up, the first race back after a bad injury is always important to get through.
Niccolò Bonifazio – I was impressed with his performance on Sunday, he really can look after himself in the closing kilometres of a race. The Italian has a big point to prove, especially to his former bosses at Trek. He certainly has the speed to challenge for the podium and wants a good start to impress his new team.
Prediction Time
It’s going to take something very special to beat Orica and Caleb Ewan. With Impey and Kluge, they will boss the final kilometre and even if Ewan does have to come past a few riders, his current form and fitness is much better than his rivals.
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