Binck Bank Tour 2018 – Stage 4 Preview

By David Hunter

Blankenberge – Ardooie 185km

One of my favourite sprint finishes of the year, hopefully the bunch doesn’t mess the chase up, like today!

The profile is very similar to the other sprint stages, but this one has a very technical finish.

Finale

The finale really begins with 8km remaining. We are on roads with lots of potential hazards, something that will make the bunch rather nervous. The battle to control the peloton starts to hot up with 5km remaining, with the first big corner coming with 3.5km to go. This is a tight corner and the riders have to slow down to ensure they get round it safe.

Once through the corner, we hit a narrow road with a very poor road surface. It is possible for teams to make a move during this section, but teammates are required to do this.

The next crucial point is with 1.3km to go. This is a tight corner, which can still be taken at speed, for those that dare. If your sprint train is too slow, and you enter the corner far back, your day is over. After that we then have the double corner, which leads into the final kilometre. It is possible to make up some ground in the final 1000m, but this is a finish that rewards fearless sprinters and quality bike handlers.

Due to the technical finish, there is always the chance of late attacking succeeding. The last time this happened was back in 2103, when Mark Renshaw took the win for Belkin. It is unlikely to happen, but always worth considering.

Kittel Watch

Katusha were partly to blame for the poor chase, a real shame they wasn’t an opportunity.

Weather

There is a chance of an afternoon thunderstorm and strong winds, but the forecast suggests that the rain could start after the end of the stage. If the roads are wet, this becomes an incredibly dangerous finale. All the riders will hope it stays dry.

Contenders

Marcel Kittel – this isn’t a great finish for Kittel. He can struggle taking corners at speed and it’s likely he’ll lose too many positions in the closing three bends. It would take a monumental effort to recover the lost ground in the final 1000m. He’s raced here on three occasions, with 8th being his best result.

Fabio Jakobsen – this is the first time he’ll experience this finish, that might actually be a good thing! He’ll benefit from having experienced men around him, Terpstra knows this finish like the back of his hand. If Jakobsen can stay in position, we’ve already seen he has the speed required to finish it off. It’s a good day to ride for QuickStep. Then again, when isn’t it!

Caleb Ewan – of all the sprinters, he should be the best in this finish. Caleb grew up racing the Aussie criterium circuits, he knows how to corner at speed. Ewan will also benefit from a very fast sprint train, I would expect to see Alex Edmondson boss from 3km to go. Once through the corners, they’ll have Roger Kluge to help Ewan. The Aussie has been here before, finishing a disappointing 14th in 2016. That experience will be crucial, he knows what not to do.

Max Walscheid – he could suffer in the corners. Larger sprinters usually find these finishes harder than the smaller guys. Walscheid does have a great lead out, but it’s a real shame the bosses have decided not to let Edward Theuns sprint. He was brilliant here in 2017, just losing out to Sagan. I’ll pray that they see sense and let Eddy have his day!

Dylan Groenewegen – it was nice to see him stretch the legs at the end of today’s stage. He was always going to get stronger as the race progressed and now he has two more chances to take a win. He’s raced here in the last three years, finishing 5th, 4th and 4th. His experience of the finish is crucial and he’s bound to be challenging for the win.

Late Attack – someone will have a go in the closing kilometre. The move isn’t usually successful unless the peloton suffers a breakdown in communication, or a crash. We have a number of big GC riders who would like to take some time back, maybe Terpstra will roll the dice.

Prediction Time

I think this is a straight fight between Groenewegen and Ewan. Given his experience of this finish, I’ll go with a win for Dylan Groenewegen.

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