Vuelta a Andalucía 2019 – Stage 5 preview

By David Hunter

Otura – Alhaurin de la Torre 164.7km

When this stage was announced, most sprinters would have thought this was one for them, imagine their horror when the full details of the stage were published.

I mean, it doesn’t look too hard. We have 5 cat 3 climbs, most of which come in the opening 74km. The problem is the final cat 3 climb, which is quickly followed by one of those typically Spanish unclassified climbs.

 The opening section of the climb is 2km at 10% and on a narrow road. We then have 1.5km of flat/downhill, before the road kicks up again, this time it’s 800m at 11.3%. The attitude of the GC riders will determine if the sprinters survive the climb. To me it looks like a great opportunity for some riders to attack and try to stay away until the finish, I don’t think the quick men are going to like it very much! Once off the climb, there is time for a regroupment as we have around 20km of flat, before the road rises up again for the finale.

The final 2km rises at around 2.5%, with the final 300m kicking up to over 6%. Not only that, but the final straight is littered with roundabouts, there are 5 in the final 2.5km. Positioning is clearly going to be important, but the roundabouts also give a late attacker some hope. It’s a finish where many things can happen.

Tactics

Most of the race has been about Astana and Mitcheton-Scott, this should again be the case. Astana will be keen on setting a fast pace on the final climb, in the hope of dropping Van Poppel and Trentin. If they manage to do so, it sets up a real chance for Pello Bilbao, who packs a fast sprint.

The Aussies will be keen on a slower pace, as Trentin will hope of making it over the final climb. If he does, we’ve already seen he is in fine sprinting form. If he is dropped, they don’t really have a rider capable of winning from a small sprint.

The other teams don’t have the strength in depth to compete with the big two, it will be interesting to see if any of the world tour teams look to get into the morning break. The early move does have a small chance of success.

Weather

Another cracking day, with some wind coming from the South-East. This means we’ll have some headwind as the riders head for home.

Contenders

Matteo Trentin – he really is back to his old self. The Italian looks to be full of confidence and this finish is a great test of his legs with Omloop het Nieuwsblad coming up next week. The final climb is going to be super difficult for him, but given the way he was climbing in Murcia, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him survive. Even if he does get slightly distance, his team are strong enough to bring him back to the front group. If he does survive, the sprint finish will be a formality against the GC men.

Pello Bilbao – the way Astana have dominated the opening months of the season, you’ve got to expect they will make the race very difficult for Trentin. In Pello Bilbao, they have a rider more than capable of delivering a sprint victory. He won the opening stage in Murcia and should be Astana’s man for the sprint finish, I think he has a better chance than Luis León Sánchez.

Matej Mohorič – the Slovenian champion will be looking forward to this stage. He certainly won’t be dropped on the final climb and packs a very fast sprint, particularly as the final 300m rises at 6%. Bahrain-Merida should throw all their resources behind him and not Iván García, I think he has a better chance of success.

Tim Wellens – did anyone say uphill sprint? Wellens has already enjoyed a successful race and he’ll be keen on this finish, as long as Trentin isn’t there. People seem to forget that the Belgian is a fast sprinter, particularly after a tough day in the saddle. He has a realistic chance of another stage win.

Prediction Time

Given the way he’s been climbing recently, I think this is another stage for Matteo Trentin. He is looking mighty fine just now!

Shouldn’t be any worries for Jakob Fuglsang in the battle for the yellow jersey.

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David Hunter

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