Giro dell’Emilia 2020 – Preview

By David Hunter

Casalecchio di Reno – San Luca 200.5km

San Luca is calling.

This beautiful race features one of the best climbs in the whole of cycling, the brutally steep ascent up to San Luca. Fans of the race will obviously remember it, but for those who just turn on for grand tours, this is where the Giro started last year.

So tough, especially the section after one kilometre, which is where Roglič attacked last year and soloed to victory. The fans are usually about five deep on the climb, but not this year. Even without the cheers, it will still be a beautiful climb.

Weather

Nice and warm, yet again.

Tactics

Will we see the winning move going on the penultimate lap? This tactic has enjoyed quite a lot of success here over the last few years, but it depends on the strongest team getting in the move. Talking of the strongest team, this year that would be Ineos, which might surprise you. They have an embarrassment of riches for this race, lining up with Carapaz, Sosa, Dunbar, Moscon and Geoghegan Hart. Despite the strength of Astana, it is Ineos have the greatest depth to their line-up.

The problem that they face is the presence of Fuglsang and Vlasov, who are looking like the strongest riders in the race. Ineos will need to work out a clever tactical plan to try and beat Astana, and that has to involve not having them in the front group for the final climb. It is clear that Ineos will attack early, in the hope of getting a small group away and out of sight. For that to work the group will probably have to include a rider from Trek-Segafredo. If we get to the foot of the final climb with all the contenders in the front group, it will be an Astana win.

Contenders

Astana – both Fuglsang and Vlasov can win this race. Some will naturally think that Fuglsang will gift this to his teammate in light of the work he did for him on Saturday, please remember this is professional sport and you don’t get gifts at this level. If Vlasov is going to win this, he needs to earn it. Both riders are climbing very well at the minute, and having two options is perfect for this race as it allows them to also attack from distance.

Ineos – Carapaz, Sosa and Geoghegan Hart look like their best options to me. Carapaz wasn’t at his best on Saturday, which is due to his recent crash in Poland. Sosa was missing in action, dropped a long way before the top of the Sormano, which just isn’t good enough for a rider of his quality. Geoghegan Hart has recently been used in a domestique role, but if you cast your mind back to the start of 2020 you might remember him climbing very well in Valenciana. After a pretty awful run over in France, I want to see Ineos come out fighting.

Trek Segafredo – this is one of the very few Italian races Nibali hasn’t won. He was good on Saturday, but not as good as the very best. It is clear that Nibali is still missing a little, but this race isn’t as hard as Lombardia, so he should be challenging for the win. Remember, the more races in his legs the better he’ll get. Trek are going full Italian for this one, they also have Ciccone and Brambilla as strong back-up options. Ciccone was good on Saturday and Brambilla has been close here before. Just like Ineos, they need to be clever with their tactics and hope not to arrive with the Astana duo.

Diego Ulissi – won here back in 2013, but the field was significantly weaker. As I’ve mentioned before, I’m not such a fan of Ulissi. In my opinion he is always looking to others to do the work, and I’ve not forgotten his drugs ban either. Putting all that to the side, I don’t see him winning as the last climb will be too hot for him.

João Almeida – despite his recent run of strong performances, it’s going to be very hard for him to win this race. However, if he climbs like he did in Burgos I think the top 5 is a realistic ambition for the youngster.

Prediction Time

Current form doesn’t lie, I think we’ll see an ultra-attacking race and Aleksandr Vlasov taking home the crown. Those Astana boys are too good just now.

David Hunter

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