By David Hunter

After a sensational race in 2015, this year’s edition is little less action packed. We have 1 stage for sprinters, 2 for puncheurs, 1 for TT riders and 1 for climbers. With good weather usually ensured, it’s a nice 5 days for the riders as they looked to get some kilometres in the legs, before some big races in March.

Stage 1

The beginning of the stage is far from easy, but this should present the sprinters with an early opportunity. The fast men here include:- Swift, Bennati, Lobato, Coquard, Bouhanni, Kreder, Claeys, Van Lerberghe and Sanz. Not really the top division of sprinters, but winning stages is winning stages!

Stage 2

The cat 3 climb coming with 20km to go represents a massive challenge for the sprinters. It is 6.6km at 5.8%, followed by two, short unclassified climbs. The descent could allow some to re-join the peloton, but the pace will be high. Puncheurs will sense a chance of a stage win. That means Felline, Chavanel, Gilbert and co will be excited!

Stage 3

It might not look too hard but this stage has plenty of climbing. The two cat 2 climbs in the closing half, makes it look a good day for the breakaway specialists. If the group arrives together, not many sprinters will be there, in fact the peloton could be significantly reduced.

Stage 4

A 21km TT, just before the Queen stage, is a good idea. I approve! Looks fairly standard, but has a final kilometre at 5%. That will sting the legs.

Stage 5

GC day! We return to Penas Blancas, where Konig won in the Vuelta back in 2013. It’s a brilliant climb, a real challenge, 15km at 6.3%. After four stages of hiding in the peloton, the big climbers will come out to play. We have plenty here!

Contenders

Wout Poels – Started the season brilliantly in Valencia. I don’t ever recall seeing him this strong. Not only did he win the Queen stage, he also took out the TT. He arrives with a strong team to support him and certainly starts the race as one of the favourites.

Rafal Majka – After his brilliant performance in the Vuelta, it will be interesting to see what his form is like. He is targeting the Giro, so his legs should already be in good condition.

Alejandro Valverde – Always goes well in Andalucia! The TT does look a little long for him, so winning the GC will be tough, but Valverde does like a TT in Spain.

Bauke Mollema – Had a great year in 2015, fully justifying the faith shown in him by Trek. He must be a little concerned that they are rumoured to be after Nibali for 2017. His TT skills continue to improve and he will fancy his chances of finishing on the podium.

Bart de Clercq – Can surprise in stage races. Took a stage and finished 2nd on GC in the Tour of Poland, followed that up with 14th in the Vuelta. If that form continues, he’ll start the season well.

Tim Wellens – A big year for Wellens, as he looks to challenge at the Giro. He has a good TT in him and with only one mountain stage, he will hope for a finish in the top 10.

Mathias Frank – Such a great performance in the Tour de France, where he battled everyday and managed to finish 8th. I was really pleased for him, he is a lovely guy! The TT isn’t great for him and it’s his first race of the year.

Wilco Kelderman – Another who starts his season here. 2015 didn’t go to plan for him, but 3rd place in the Eneco Tour saved it. 2014 was a huge year for him, finishing 7th in the Giro and 4th in the Dauphine. He needs to remind everyone how good he really is.

Stevn Kruijswijk – His 2015 Giro was a thing of beauty. After losing time in the first week, he still managed to finish 7th, thanks to an amazing couple of weeks. The TT isn’t great for him and it’s also his first race of 2015. Form unknown!

Tejay Van Garderen – Form is known! He was looking great in Murcia and will be looking to win this race. He usually starts the season well and the 21km TT is great news for him. His team is also already in good form, so he won’t be lacking in support.

Daniel Navarro – After a poor 2015, I was delighted to see a good performance by him in Valenciana. The TT will stop him from winning, but he’ll be hoping for a big performance on Penas Blancas.

Analysis

One ITT and a mountain stage means this should be a battle between Poels and Van Garderen. Sky have started the season with a bang, Poels win in Valenciana was one of the most impressive performances I’ve seen in a while. He doesn’t have the same level of climbing help here, with only Nieve and Roche, the Irishman being a late replacement for the ill Intxausti. They certainly aren’t the best team here.

BMC have Bookwalter, Atapuma, Hermans and Sanchez to support their leader. Gilbert is fresh from winning Murcia and he was waxing lyrical about his team. On paper, Van Garderen is a better TT rider than Poels and that is crucial. If the American takes a lead into the final stage, he should be able to hold onto it.

The TT does make it difficult for most of the others to contend, so Mollema and Valverde are the only realistic challengers. The Spaniard does up his game on home soil, he’ll really need to. 21km is a bit long and he’ll be concerned about losing more than 40 seconds to Van Garderen and Poels. He has Dani Moreno and Ruben Fernandez to help him on the mountain stage. If given some freedom, both of these riders are capable of surprising. Moreno was 2nd on Penas Blancas back in the 2013 Vuelta.

Bauke Mollema won’t have much help in the mountains, so he’ll struggle when the going gets tough. It’s probably a little early in his season for him to realistically challenge. Tirreno will be his first big target.

Prediction Time

Van Garderen v Poels. I know the Sky rider was impressive in Valencia, but I have Van Garderen down as a better rider than him. This title is heading to America!

Stage 1 Preview

Almonaster la Real – Sevilla 165.2km

The race begins with a very straight road to Sevilla. If the peloton aren’t careful, they might actually fall asleep!

The roads are rarely flat in this part of the world, and this stage is no exception. The opening 50km of the stage contains three categorised climbs, perfect for those teams that want to wear the KOM jersey. Expect to see some of the smaller teams fighting fiercely for mountain points.

After the final climb, the race will settle down and the chase will be organised. What follows is 100km, mostly descending, so the catch should be made. The break will hope that the big teams look at each other and engage in a bit of peloton poker. It’s the opening stage, so no team is in the race lead. During moments like this, the break can get a huge gap, before the peloton sort themselves out. Team Sky always like controlling matters, but they will want Cofidis and Movistar to also contribute.

Thankfully, the high winds that ruined the Almeria race are now gone. The forecast is for a sunny day, although a little colder than usual for Andalucia. It looks like a perfect day for cycling.

We don’t have many of the top sprinters here. That is great news for Nacer Bouhanni, as he looks to take his first win of the season. He was very close in Valenciana, but was beaten by Dylan Groenewegen. They arrive with a seven man team, two for the climbs and 4 to help Bouhanni. With Lemoine, Bozic, Laporte and Soupe they don’t have too many riders to commit to the early chase. They will hope another team does this, allowing them to keep the final three men for the closing stages. I really do hope that Soupe is moving back into position two, a role he is magnificent in.

Movistar are here to win the GC, with Alejandro Valverde. They have JJ Lobato for the sprints, but he’s barely sprinted in anger yet in 2016. He did win the Dam stage in Dubai, a big moment for him. He will now have the confidence to mix it on the flat days, although he doesn’t have much help. Looking at their squad, I’m struggling to see who will actually lead him out.

Direct Energie have made an amazing start to 2016, already securing six wins. Their plan for this race was all based around Bryan Coquard, but he crashed today and has pulled out of the race. That is disastrous news for the team, especially as he looks likely to miss Paris-Nice as well. Petit does provide an alternative, expect to see him in the sprints, trying to add to his three wins in the Bongo.

With few teams actually bothering to bring a sprinter, we could be in for a few surprises. Looking to compete in the bunch kick will be Ben Swift, Kristian Sbaragli, Daniele Bennati, Fabio Felline, Tosh Van der Sande, Koen de Kort, Dimitri Claeys, Bert Van Lerberghe and Enrique Sanz.

Most of these riders are lacking any type of lead out train and you might not even recognise some of the names! I will try to enlighten you.

Dimitri Claeys rides for Wanty after making the move from Verandas Willems. He can finish well, especially after a difficult day in the saddle.

Bert Van Lerberghe is the next sprinter for Topsport Vlaanderen. He is taking over sprinting duties from Edward Theuns. He is a fast man and will benefit from riding for a well oiled team. Already with a couple of top ten results in Besseges, he will be hoping for a podium spot.

The finish is not easy. Just inside the flamme rouge, the riders make a sharp left turn. This will bring the speed of the bunch down to a grinding halt. It is vital that you have good position going into this corner, but watch out for daredevils trying to dive-bomb the corner. Experienced teams know how to deal with this, they fan out across the road, denying any room. Once round the corner, we have a ninety degree right turn, with 600m remaining.

From there, the sprint begins in earnest, but we also have a roundabout with 400m to go. There will be no slowing down and with enough space for two riders wide, poor positioning will stop a rider from competing. The sprinter with the best lead-out should win this stage.

Prediction Time

This has to be one for Bouhanni. He has the best lead-out and should now be up to race speed. If you are looking for a shock, keep an eye out for Daniele Bennati. He is a brilliant bike handler and will love this technical finish.

David Hunter

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