Santos Tour Down Under 2015 – Stage 2 Preview

By David Hunter

Stage 2 and we head to Stirling. A regular venue for the TDU and one of my favourite stage finishes. This is a tough stage and can be won by a sprinter, a puncheur or a breakaway specialist.

The organisers do like to vary the number of times we lap around Stirling and how many times up the climb. This year they’ve settled on three times up the climb, this is the same as last year. When Slagter won here in 2013 they did the climb 6 times!

Let’s take a moment to look at the previous winners in Stirling:-

2014 – Ulissi

2013 – Slagter

2012 – Will  Clarke(breakaway)

2011 – Matthews

2010 – Cardoso

2009 – Davis

Last year, Daryl Impey delivered Simon Gerrans into the perfect position, but Gerro hesitated and Ulissi jumped them all. The timing of the sprint and positioning is very important.

The uphill drag to the line doesn’t look much, but it’s hard and suits a powerful rider. We do have a few sprinters here that like an uphill sprint: Nizzolo, Meersman and Lobato. The issue for all these guys will be positioning in the last 3km. They have to use the downhill section to move to the front of the bunch for the final 1km. If you don’t feature in the first 20 riders, you have no chance. The speed of the laps also mean that sprinters find themselves our of gas, when they try to sprint. Despite all his victories, Andre Greipel, has never won in Stirling. That tells you all you need to know!

Marcel Kittel has no chance. His big frame makes it very difficult to deal with the climb, at pace. Don’t get me wrong, the climb isn’t a monster by anyone’s standards, it’s the relentless pace they climb it at. Kittel managed to get to the line, in stage 1, but he didn’t have the legs to sprint. This stage is harder, so Marcel can forget about it!

This stage is more often won by a punchy rider, we have: Haas, Impey and Haussler.

Haussler is clearly in form and has found a new lease of sprinting life. I have to be honest, I thought the days of him winning races was long gone. Victory in the Aussie RR has given him a huge amount of confidence and he’s flying. He has to be one of the big favourites for the stage.

Daryl Impey was very strong here last year. He lead-out Gerrans and still finished 10th. Riding for himself, this year, he has a big chance. His sprint is quick and good enough to beat the riders here. I’m still concerned about who will lead him out. However, he’s very good at positioning and will be at the head of the race, inside the final 500m, this gives him a great chance.

Nathan Haas is not as quick as the other two riders mentioned. I think he’ll struggle to win the stage, despite what a lot of people are saying. He could go close but I can’t see him outsprinting the others. He’ll need to surprise them by going early.

In the middle of the season you wouldn’t doubt Nizzolo, Meersman and Lobato against Impey and the others. At this time of the year, anything is possible.

Lobato won the opening stage in the 2014 Tour of Burgos with a fierce uphill sprint and another in Wallonie. He likes this type of finish, the type when others are hurting! He is a rider with a massive chance of success.

At the start of 2014, Nizzolo won an uphill sprint in Tour de San Luis. His pathetic performance in stage 1, tells everyone that he’s not in form and doesn’t stand a chance here.

As I mentioned in my stage 1 preview, I have no confidence in Meersman. However, the word from the peloton is that he’s in great condition. He might have to do without the services of Mark Renshaw. This circuit isn’t the favoured terrain of the Australian. Left to fend for himself, I doubt Meersman will be able to win the stage, despite what the pros are telling me!

Niccolo Bonifazio was impressive in stage 1. He “won” the sprint from the peloton, although when not sprinting for a victory some riders don’t go full gas. Nonetheless, it was an impressive ride. Such a shame his team didn’t believe enough in him, to bring back the break. Stirling is the graveyard of the young sprinter. Take Caleb Ewan, for example. He was right at the front, last year, inside the last 2 kilometres but he finished 123rd. Young sprinters, tend to do badly here. Only Michael Matthews and Peter Sagan have finished in the top 20, in the last 5 years. Quite a statistic! Young sprinters hate Stirling, apart from Bling!

There are a number of quick men who could surprise here. Riders like Tom Dumoulin, Samuel Dumoulin, Simon Geschke, Cadel Evans, Steele Von Hoff and LL Sanchez, all have the capability of surprising here and taking the win.

Teammates is the crucial element in this finish. You need a strong team that can take their leader to the front but also close down any late attacks and there will be late attacks. Even then, teams can run out of men right at the death. This results in the peloton spreading across the road and a solo attacker can take the win. Teams beware, you need to have numbers and be strong.

One other rider I’d like to mention is Alexey Tsatevich. The Russian loves an uphill sprint. Last year, he was 2nd in Le Samyn and 7th in Gent-Wevelgem. In 2013, he won Le Samyn. The Belgian race is not too dissimilar to the circuit in Stirling. His 19th place finish in stage 1 is a sign he is in form and ready to rumble.

Prediction Time

Uni-SA will control the morning break and allow the bigger teams to close the gap, in the last 20km. If Bobridge can finish with the main group, he’ll hold onto the ochre jersey. Inside the final kilometres expect to see Team Sky and BMC lead the peloton and set a fierce pace. In the final kilometre we’ll get opportunistic attacks but expect to see Orica take control of the situation. Impey needs bonus seconds and a stage win and I think he has the best chance of taking the stage, but watch out for Tsatevich!

David Hunter

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