Tour de San Luis 2015 – Stage 4 Preview

By David Hunter

Back to the mountains!

The riders travel 142.5km from Villa Dolores to Alto El Amago. This stage is shorter than the previous ones, but it features a very difficult climb.

The climb was used last year, with Quintana taking a large victory. It’s a prefect climb for him: long and hard

10.5km at 7.2% is going to hurt the legs of the riders. A lot of them finished fairly close to Dani Diaz, on stage 2, but the chances are, we’ll get big time gaps here.

Nairo has admitted that he was at 50% of his capabilities, but he does improve quickly. What percentage will he be at here?

Dani Diaz was flying on Tuesday. He has 2 teammates placed in the top 6: Ramos and Diniz. This is very important, especially if Quintana attacks from distance. They could also take it in turns to attack him, in an effort to wear him down. It was pleasing to see Igor Anton hitting some early season form. His presence will be very important for Nairo, he has to stay with him, deep into the climb. Brother, Dayer, will also be required.

Team Colombia also have multiple options in Torres, Contreras and Rubiano. Look for them to ride an aggressive race to try and pressure the Brazilians.

It really does seem like a three way South American battle. We have Colombia v Brazil v Argentina. Representing Argentina, we have Sepulveda. He had a strong 5th place on Tuesday and this climb should suit him better. His team will deliver him into a good position and hope that Brice Feillu can stay with him as long as possible. With plenty of attacks, an isolated Sepulveda will have to rely on others to close attacks, a dangerous game!

The biggest surprise of stage 2 was Dani Moreno. He had downplayed his form and chances, but popped up with a 4th place. Very cheeky! He might have been able to wing it a bit, due to the shortness of the climb. Will the longer climb expose his fitness? Dani was the only European in the top 10, on Tuesday!

Betancur was miles behind, like Kwiatkowski. I don’t expect anything from these guys.

Prediction Time

Team Colombia, Funvic and Movistar all have depth in their line-ups. As they battle against each other, it should give a free ride to Sepulveda and Moreno, if he makes it. Nairo Quintana will be feeling better having stage 2 in his legs. This is his mountain and his stage to win. He has the ability to attack from distance or play the waiting game. Diaz is looking very strong and has a very good team with him, but can he really outgun Quintana on such a long, difficult climb? It’s Quintana for me! Keep an eye out for Sepulveda, he could go close.

David Hunter

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