Tour Down Under 2015 – Stage 3 Preview

By David Hunter

143.2km from Norwood to Paracombe and a new finish in the TDU!

The stage finishes with the climb of Torrens Hill Road, it’s a little beauty!

The official profile of the final 3km doesn’t really do the climb justice. Here’s my own look at it.

1.2km at an average of 10%, this is a serious climb! To begin the climb, the riders take a very tight, right-hand corner. This is very, very important. Most teams should have been to the climb, but the local teams will still have an advantage. If you’re too far back, your race is over. Holding position, is something sprinters are very good at, but climbers are not the best. Luckily for them, the road is already rising, so the bunch won’t arrive at top speed. That said, you need to be near the front, at the turn.

Once on the climb, we have a series of steps for the riders to tackle. At one point, the gradient does go over 20%, this is going to hurt. The stage continues over the top of the climb, with the final 400m on a little false flat. Will the last 400m be a long victory parade or will we see a small group sprint for glory?

The short, steep climb looks to favour punchy riders. The top contenders are: Simon Geschke, Tom Dumoulin, Cadel Evans, Simon Clarke, Daryl Impey, Geraint Thomas, Nathan Haas, Adam Hansen, Domenico Pozzovivo, LL Sanchez and Giampaolo Caruso. All of these riders have a history of doing well on short, steep climbs.

That being said, we cannot overlook Richie Porte. Being much lighter than usual, he’ll handle this climb well. He knows that leaving it all to Willunga Hill, is a dangerous tactic. Expect Richie to attack and take the race to his rivals. The big question will be can anyone follow? Due to a poor sprint, if Porte brings others to the line, he’ll lose. If he doesn’t view them as a threat, he might even let them take the win.

Orica do have a number of cards to play. They have Clarke, Impey and Meyer. The climb is probably on the limit of these riders capabilities, but on a good day, they can cope. Sprinters have an amazing ability to haul themselves over short, steep climbs at the end of stages. Impey claimed 6 important bonus seconds yesterday. He has to try and hang tough, as the final 400m suits him. It will be hard to match the accelerations of Richie Porte.

LL Sanchez finished 6th in Stirling. He’s another rider that’s well suited to the climb. He is good on short climbs and has a fast finish. He’ll try and follow wheels, before attacking on the flat.

Tom Dumoulin now looks like the leader of Giant. His performances in the Eneco Tour, prove that he is very capable on short climbs. He’s yet another, that has a good sprint finish. He was unlucky to finish outside of the podium, on stage 2, can he go one better today?

What about Cadel? This finish should be good for the ex-mountainbiker. All through his career, Cadel has excelled on these climbs, but all week I’ve questioned his current form. I’m just not convinced that this is a Cadel that can win this stage.

Giampaolo Caruso has proper Ardennes form, this year he was 4th in LBL and 16th in Amstel Gold. His problem is that he’ll be riding for Tiago Machado. The Portuguese rider is looking super thin, a big benefit on this climb. He’s another that should finish in the top 10.

Nathan Haas made a basic tactical mistake in stage 2, but there was no hiding his good form. This finish could be better for him. He’s joined by a strong team, even if they do get a bit excited and hit the front too early! If Hesjedal can time it right, Haas could claim that elusive stage win.

Domenico Pozzovivo has quietly went about his business this week. Crucially he hasn’t lost time on the early stages and arrives at a climb that he’ll love. He has been riding with a broken bone in his wrist. It doesn’t seem to be affecting him but I can’t see a less than 100% rider winning this stage.

Movistar arrive with multiple options. As I’ve already said, sprinters can do amazing things at the end of a stage. JJ Lobato is obviously flying and he’ll be hoping that the fireworks don’t go off on the climb. If dropped, his team can turn to Izagirre, Herrada, Fernandez and Capecchi. An embarrassment of riches for the Spanish outfit. Izagirre and Fernandez are the best shots. Having a strong team is a massive plus.

Prediction Time

As we approach the climb watch for Team Sky, BMC and Orica to dominate proceedings. They will battle for position and the narrowness of the road means that if you get caught out, it’s race over. As we turn right, watch for the first attacks. It’s probably going to be Kennaugh to attack, then Thomas and then Porte. They tried the same tactic in 2014 at the Vuelta a Andulucia. That day they went too early and Porte was outgunned by Valverde. Most people assume that this isn’t a Porte climb. That was true of the old Richie Porte, but once you lose 6kg all sorts of climbs open up to you. When Porte attacks, can anyone follow?

Cadel will try, he has to. I see the two Aussies break clear before Porte goes hard again. Porte will drop Evans and reach the summit first. The group behind will lack cohesion and Porte should be good to sail home for a big win.

Of all the other riders, Daryl Impey is the one that Richie should fear. The South African will be determined to stay as close as possible. He has strong teammates and this is a help. At only 1km long, the climb isn’t huge and it is possible that a small group emerges together. If this happens, Impey wins.

I’ve got to pick one and I go Richie Porte. He’s got to use this brilliant form before he loses it!

David Hunter

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