Santos Tour Down Under 2015 – Overall Preview

By David Hunter

After a long winter, the World Tour gets back up and running in Adelaide. As everyone knows, defending champion Simon Gerrans is out with injury. This is a blow to the fans but a massive bonus for the other riders. With Gerro away, it certainly opens the door to a number of riders, even some from his own team!

The route is very familiar, with one exception, the new finish to stage 3. This stages finishes with the climb of Torrens Hill Road. It’s 1.2km at an average of 8% and promises to be an exciting addition to the race.

We have the usual finishes in Stirling and on Willunga Hill, where the GC will be settled, once again. Since the race changed, to have a summit finish on the hill in 2012, we’ve seen 3 shout-outs for the title. Valverde beat Gerrans on Willunga, in 2012, but Gerrans won the GC(thanks to count back as both riders finished on the same time). In 2013, Gerrans won on Willunga, but it was Tom Slagter who took the GC and who can forget last year? Richie Porte won on the climb, with Gerrans taking the GC. This race has been dominated by Simon Gerrans, it’s going to be weird not having him around.

This year, there are many contenders for the title: Evans, Dennis, Thomas, Porte, De Gendt, Hansen, Capecchi, Rogers, Pozzovivo, Geschke, Dumoulin, Meyer, Clarke, Impey, Machado, LL Sanchez, Jeannesson, Elmiger, Hesjedal, Haig and Haas. That’s quite a list!

Cadel Evans and Richie Porte arrive as the massive favourites for the race. In 2014, Cadel lost out to Gerrans by only 1 second. A defeat that really hurt. This is his last race at World Tour level, before his impending retirement. We didn’t get a real chance to see his form in the Aussie RR, but an 11th place finish isn’t too be scoffed at. BMC arrive with some serious firepower in an effort to help him secure a fairytale ending to his career. They have Dennis, Schar, Dillier, Flakemore, Stetina and Wyss. Both Rohan Dennis and Campbell Flakemore are in brilliant form and will lay it all down for Cadel. As a 21 year old, Rohan Dennis claimed a hugely impressive 5th place, in this race. If something should go wrong for Cadel, he would jump at the chance to be team leader.

Team Sky arrive with a skinny Richie Porte. Make no mistake, Richie is flying! Already in Grand Tour shape, the rest of the peloton, especially the Aussies, are scared of what he can do. He arrives with a solid team of helpers: Sutton, Thomas, Stannard, Rowe, Puccio and Kennaugh. After tasting glory on Willunga, in 2014, Richie wants to take home the ochre jersey this time around. The problem for Porte, and others like him, are the bonus seconds. This race is usually determined by very small margins. With 10, 6 and 4 seconds available at the end of a stage and 3, 2 and 1 available on the road, at sprint points, the race is designed for a rider with a fast finish. Gerrans and Orica have always been aware of this and try to win as many of the intermediate sprints as possible. Finishing in the bonus seconds, at the end of the stage is also crucial. When Gerrans won in 2012, he had a 2nd and a 3rd place during the week. In 2013, Slagter had a 1st and 2nd. Last year, Gerrans had 1st, 2nd and 3rd place finishes. It’s very difficult for Richie Porte to match these performances. He can win on Willunga Hill, but will struggle to finish in the top 3 on another stage. This could be his downfall.

The same could be said about Mick Rogers. A great rider, who gets to be team leader, for a change. Expect a good GC spot for Rogers but he’s another that lacks the finish required to collect bonus seconds.

The same can be said for Pozzovivo, Hesjedal and Haig. Excellent riders but I can’t see them winning here.

Team Giant-Alpecin arrive with 2 cards to play: Geschke and Dumoulin. Both are strong on the hills and have a turn of speed for the sprints. Tom Dumoulin was one of the best riders of 2014. His performances were outstanding and if this race was held in September, I would make him a big favourite. This is the earliest he’s ever started a season. He usually favours Ruta Del Sol as his starting point, in mid February. I also have my doubts about his capability to handle the Australian heat, especially as it’s his first time racing in the TDU. That means Simon Geschke will probably take over team leader duties. Last year, Geschke finished way down in 24th place. Losing a lot of time on the 2 most important days: Willunga and Corkscrew. It would take an almighty performance to change 24th into the podium. He has got a fast finish but Willunga Hill might be his nemesis.

Tiago Machado has just moved to Team Katusha. He was back to his very best in 2014 and wants to start the year well. He loves riding in the heat and has turned in some good performances, in this race, in the past:-

2012 – 3rd

2013 – 9th(including 5th place on Willunga Hill)

He can cope with Willunga but like others, he’ll struggle to collect bonus seconds. I expect a strong showing from Machado and he has the potential to finish in the top 5.

Astana arrive with some of their new riders: LL Sanchez, Cataldo, Boom, Malacarne and De Vreese. Sanchez will be their leader and I’ve heard he’s motivated to do well. With so many new riders, they may lack a bit of cohesion, but the Spaniard should be able to threaten the top 5.

The newly merged Team Cannondale-Garmin, arrive with Hesjedal and Haas. Nathan Haas was 5th in 2014 and looks good for another strong showing. He’s a fast sprinter, compared to the others, and with Hesjedal riding for him, he’ll have an excellent teammate to count on. I think Hesjedal will do the supporting job as his targets are later in the season. Haas is definitely one who could go very close. 2014 was something of a breakthrough season for the 25 year old and he’ll look to start 2015 fast. The collection of bonus seconds could see him reach the podium, this time round.

Orica might not have Gerrans, but they arrive with 3 riders capable of challenging: Meyer, Impey and Clarke. The team have a big decision to make about leadership. They’ve been saying they’re here for stage wins, but in this race, that opens the door to the GC. Meyer is a former winner of the race, back in 2011, but that was before we had a stage ending with Willunga Hill. All 3 riders are very capable, but the first few stages will throw Daryl Impey forward as the team leader. The team should be able to keep all 3 of there riders high on GC, until Willunga. This will put them in a very strong position.

Stages

Stage 1 – Tanunda › Campbelltown (132.6k)

Stage 2 – Unley › Stirling (150.5k)

Stage 3 – Norwood › Paracombe (143.2k)

Stage 4 – Glenelg › Mt Barker (144.5k)

Stage 5 – McLaren Vale › Willunga Hill (151.5k)

Stage 6 – Adelaide › Adelaide

Prediction Time

The bonus seconds will again be crucial and for that reason I’m going against Richie Porte. I don’t believe in fairytales, so Evans isn’t going to win. Last year was his big chance, I think! Orica still have a very impressive team and I have a hunch that we’ll get a surprise win for Daryl Impey. His ability to pick up bonus seconds will be crucial. If you think he can’t climb, please think again. Last year, he finished 5th on Willunga Hill. The boy can climb! He’s been training hard in South Africa and looking for a fast start to the year. He had a tremendous end to 2014, after a shortened season, due to a drug charge that he was cleared off. This form will be quick to return to his legs. I think he needs to start the Willunga Hill stage with a 20 second lead over Porte. This is a big ask and will require at least 1 stage win, but with a few difficult sprinting days, it’s possible.

The other factor to take into consideration is teammates. It will be important to have teammates high on GC. Porte has Thomas, Evans has Dennis and Impey has Meyer and Clarke. This makes the race very interesting and harder to call. Is it possible for one of these riders to benefit from a tactical race? It is possible, but unlikely. It’s Impey for me.