Tour de San Luis 2015 – Stage 2 Preview
By David Hunter
Stage 2 sees the riders travel 185.3km from La Punta to Mirador de Potrero. Followers of the race will be well aware of this climb, a regular feature of the race.
The race will be nice and easy, as the riders stare down the face of the mountain, all day long. A small break will go away and will be controlled by the World Tour teams. The climb is short and steep.
Officialy, 4.8km at 6.7%, but the final kilometre is tough at 7.5%. Last year, it was Arredondo and Stetina fighting it out for the stage, won by the Colombian. Quintana finished in 3rd, only 3 seconds behind, with the top 14 riders finishing within 11 seconds of the stage winner.
In 2013, Alex Diniz took a surprise win. He finished 24 seconds clear of the chasing group. Diniz is back this year. Alberto Contador conquered the hill in 2012, although this result was cancelled out, due to his drug ban. In 2011, Jose Serpa won from a leading group of 5 riders and Rafael Valls took the stage in 2010. In each of the last 5 years the winner of this stage, hasn’t won the GC.
As the stage happens early in the race, the main favourites are still trying to find their form. At under 5km, the climb isn’t very long and with the GC boys looking at each other, it’s clear that a lower ranked rider can slip away and take the stage. Having an explosive kick is necessary to try and remove any wheel huggers, so it does slim the contenders down a little.
Nairo Quintana is obviously the main GC rider here, but don’t be surprised to see his brother, Dayer, allowed to try and claim some glory. A talented climber in his own right, he won a very difficult stage in the Tour of Austria, finishing on Kitzbuheler Horn.
San Luis Somos Todos have both Godoy and Moyano, capable of taking the win. The World Tour riders know that the locals are dangerous and will look to marshall any attacks from them. Moyano is slightly less known, he could get some extra freedom.
The short, steep climb is good for almost the whole AG2R team. They have Betancur, Nocentini and Vuillermoz. All 3 riders are capable in this type of finish, but Betancur is team leader so everyone should be working for him. He’s not at full fitness yet, or riding weight, but the shortness of the climb is a major factor in his favour. He wants to leave the race with 1 stage win, this could be his best chance.
The length of the climb also makes it well within the limits of Michal Kwiatkowski. He does suffer on the longer efforts, but this is good for him, he was 3rd here in 2013. Riding with his faithful companion, Michal Golas, it will be interesting to see the form of the World Champion.
Cattaneo and an incredibly thin Niemiec are the Lampre options. It would be a big surprise to see either riding taking the stage.
As I said in my overall preview, I expect Eduardo Sepulveda and Dani Diaz to go well here. Sepulveda lacks a kick, so winning the stage will be very hard for him. Diaz arrives with teammate, Diniz, a former winner on this climb. Having two strong climbers is a massive positive for the Funvic team. Both will attack and they have a good chance of escaping, especially Diniz as his poor TT skills will allow him more freedom.
The Italian squad have Finetto and Battaglin. Mauro has told me he doesn’t have the legs yet and I don’t see Battaglin winning this type of stage.
The other contenders for the stage are Brenes, Jaramillo, Rubiano, Ebsen, Brajkovic and Zakarin.
Of these Rubiano looks the strongest. That being said he only finished 9th here last year, but he is capable of a strong finish and has finished as high as 3rd on this climb.
Prediction Time
Movistar have a strong climbing team with them. At only 4.8km long, they should be able to control the climb and limit the attacks. We should see the definitive moves take place inside the final kilometre of the race. The Argentines are super motivated for this and with multiple options I think a rider from San Luis Somos Todos will win. I won’t go for their main rider, he’ll be marked, instead I’ll go with Enzo Moyano. He was 5th here last year, on GC, and 3rd in 2011. He’s still only 25 years old and is looking lean and ready to surprise a few. His team are arguably the strongest here and this can only help in his quest for a stage win. Moyano is the man for me!
David Hunter
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