Santos Tour Down Under 2015 – Stage 4 Preview
By David Hunter
Stage 4 and the riders travel 144.5km from Glenelg to Mount Barker. It’s another demanding day in the saddle
The profile picture makes it look a bit harder than it seems. We have 2 main sections of climbing in the final 25km, the first is 2.4km at 5%, then we have 1km at 6%. These sections aren’t overly challenging but after the racing we’ve had this week, it might be enough for a few riders.
The opening section of the race is alongside the sea. Riders will have to be very focused, in case of echelons.
I suppose the big question is, can Marcel Kittel make the sprint?
It depends on how hard the others want to make the race! The constant uphill grind for the final 40km of the race, is not something the big German likes. Despite not hitting massive gradients, the climbing will be fast and tiring. Luckily for the big man, the forecast is not for boiling heat.
If Orica want Daryl Impey to challenge for a GC podium spot, he needs to win this stage. To do that, they need to eliminate most sprinters. The problem is JJ Lobato! Clearly in brilliant form, if he’s around at the end, he should be good enough to win. That being said, positioning seems to be a weakness for the Spaniard. His power rescued him on stage 2, but this finish is downhill, so he needs to be in a better spot.
With the final 1.5km downhill, we should be in for a fast finish, but there’s no guarantee we’ll get a sprint.
The nature of the profile is perfect for a breakaway. The only doubt in my mind is the bonus seconds and Orica. If they decide to place a rider in the break, it’s all over! The break will win, as long as that rider isn’t a threat on GC.
I would like them to send Matt Hayman in the break. I’m a big fan of his and think he’s a massively underrated rider. Team director, Matt White, has some interesting decisions to make.
Thomas De Gendt is a rider that will be looking for the break. He wants to win the KOM jersey and the early climb will be on his mind as the early attacks go. No other rider in the peloton is interested in the jersey, so it should be easy for De Gendt to claim the points. He looked very strong, climbing into Stirling. If in the break, he’ll be a massive player in the stage.
There are a few breakaway experts far down on GC, but the state of their form is totally unknown. We have Riblon, Kadri, Bono, Boaro, Elmiger and Wyss.
The composition of the break will determine it’s success. The right mix of strongmen and teams, they’ll be off! The ball is in Orica’s court.
If we do get a sprint the most impressive sprinters have been Lobato and Bonifazio. It would be a fine reward for the Italian, if he could walk away with a World Tour stage victory. He does deserve it!
Prediction Time
It’s time for Marcel Kittel to join the party! Despite being lumpy, he should be fine to make the sprint and we won’t get a repeat of his stage 1 “miscommunication”.
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