Volta ao Algarve 2016 Preview

By David Hunter

It’s the 42nd edition of the race and the field is as strong as I can remember. With many teams shunning Oman, the organisers have certainly benefited. The field contains previous winners Thomas, Kwiatkowski, Tony Martin and Alberto Contador. This looks like being one of the best races in it’s history.

Stage 1

We begin with the usual stage finishing in Albufeira. Despite being a stage for the sprinters, this is a very tricky finish. After hitting a roundabout with 2km to go, the riders are faced with an uphill sprint for a kilometre, before the run for home. It’s very easy for a sprinter to lose position before the sprint. Previous winners here include Gianni Meersman, Sacha Modolo and Paul Martens.

Stage 2

The organisers have decided to spice things up this year, with the introduction of a second hilltop finish. The stage has plenty of climbing, with four categorised climbs in the final 60km. The finish is at the top of Alto da Foia, 14 years since it’s last inclusion in the race. It is 7.5km at 5.8%, so it will create gaps in the field. Team hierarchy will be sorted on this stage.

Stage 3

Stage 3 is a big day for the GC, with an 18km ITT. Last year, there was under a second between Tony Martin and Adriano Malori. Part of the route is very exposed, not great if the wind is up.

Stage 4

Up and down, all day long. This is a good day to make the break. If it does come back together, the final 400m rises at 5%. A lovely power sprint.

Stage 5

The Queen stage, with the usual finish on Alto do Malhao. It’s 2.5km at 8.9%, a real test for the riders. Richie Porte won here in 2015, with Geraint Thomas securing the overall title.

Contenders

The 18km TT means that the overall winner has to be decent in this discipline. The second hilltop finish, does rule out the pure TT riders, so we are looking at all rounders:-

Geraint Thomas – The defending champion is back and he’ll be hoping to retain his title. After riding for Henao in the TDU, it will be interesting to see where his form is. He put in a terrific TT in 2015, he’ll need another if he wants the title. He might find the biggest pressure coming from a teammate.

Michal Kwiatkowski – His first big race for Team Sky. The two hilltop finishes and the TT are perfect for him. His explosive power makes him one of the big favourites for the race. We shall see how Sky organise their team, but the Pole should really start as captain, considering the parcours.

LL Sanchez – Due to the TT, he should really lead Astana. They also have Rosa and Aru, but after 18km against the clock Aru should be out of the GC picture. Rosa was 4th in the Valenciana TT, a very impressive ride by him. Despite this, Sanchez should be their man, after his second place in Spain.

Rigoberto Uran – This will be his first race for Cannondale. I wonder how he’ll get on, particularly in the TT. Such a talent but I am worried about his choice of team. No form to speak of, we’ll just have to wait and see what his legs are like.

Thibaut Pinot – His TT skills continue to improve, taking 2nd place in Etoile de Bességes.  He will be supported by Morabito and Reichenbach, that is a solid looking team. In fact, by FDJ standards, that’s an amazing team. A top 3 finish will be in his mind.

Ion Izagirre – A crash in the Valenciana TT ruined his chances of a podium finish. The race looks great for his skill set, he should certainly be targeting the podium. He has a very good team around him, with Oliveira and Amador to help on the hills.

Alberto Contador – The two time champion is back. This might be his final season and his focus is winning another Tour de France. It might be his first race of the year, but Contador usually starts with a bang. His TT performance is a great indicator of overall form. If he wants to win this race, he can’t afford to lose any more than 30 seconds to the other favourites.

Sprints

The two sprint stages are not straight forward. Stage 1 is a very familiar stage, usually won by a climbing sprinter. They have to cope with a 500m uphill sprint, before getting ready for the last kilometre. If you drop down the bunch, your chance is over. The last 400m of stage 4 rises at 4.5%, not an easy sprint finish. We have the big two sprinters here, but not with their top lead-out trains:-

Lotto only have Debusschere and Greipel, from their top train. They will look for help from Gallopin, De Bie and Benoot but this is not how Greipel would have imagined his first battle with Kittel. Lotto might even let Debusschere have a sprint, to save Greipel from a physiological blow.

Etixx have Tony Martin, Vermote, Lampaert, Boonen, Sabatini and Kittel. Not the same train that worked so well in Dubai, but still quality men to support the German. Problem is the two finishes, they aren’t really his style. They suit Boonen better.

Two other riders jump out as potential stage winners: Edward Theuns and Dylan Groenewegen. The uphill finishes are perfect for Theuns and he’ll be supported by Cancellara and Stuyven. Jumbo’s new Dutchman is fresh from a win in Valenciana, where he looked very quick. Don’t be surprised if they win the sprint stages, not the big two.

Analysis

An 18km TT and two uphill finishes, this suits Team Sky very well. In Thomas and Kwiatkowski, they have two potential winners. That will be very important on stage 2, where they can take turns attacking. Kwiatkowski has the best sprint of all the GC riders, crucial when trying to pick up bonus seconds.

FDJ look very strong but Pinot will lose some time in the TT. He is much better than he used to be, but not at the same standard as Thomas and Kwiatkowski. On his day, Contador  can TT with the best, but he’s still a bit inconsistent. The stage to Alto da Foia comes before the TT, Contador would like some seconds on his rivals, going into the chrono. If he gets it, he can defend well.

Movistar were unlucky in Valenciana. They arrive with a serious looking squad: Dowsett, Castroviejo, Oliveira, Arcas, Ventoso, Amador and Izagirre. Regular readers will know how much I rate Izagirre, a rider who was 3rd on Alto do Malhao, in 2015. He crashed in Valencia, so narrowly missed the podium. I would be amazed if he didn’t podium here.

Astana complete the group of hugely talented teams. They had plenty of numbers in Valencia, but Poels was too good. Aru, Rosa and Sanchez are all great riders, but only Aru is good enough to win this race. He will be in better condition, thanks to his efforts in Valencia, but the 18km TT is not in his favour. I think he’ll be here to get some more kilometres in the legs before heading off to Paris-Nice, his first target of the season.

The climb on stage 2 looks a bit easy to create big gaps, it will come down to the TT and Malhao, same as usual.

Prediction Time

Michal Kwiatkowski to continue the great start to 2016 by Team Sky. He has the ability to win 2 stages, on his way to the GC.

David Hunter

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