Tour de San Luis 2015 – Overall Preview
By David Hunter
Cycling returns to Argentina and San Luis, as the season kicks off. A lot of riders love starting their season here as there isn’t the panic of achieving World Tour points. Life in San Luis is tranquillo! The riders can begin the season here, without huge expectations. Most are just happy to be in the sun and riding their bikes, after a long winter. That being said, some riders are here to win.
The European riders are just starting their season, but the South American riders are already in the middle of their campaign. That puts the local riders at an advantage and if you consult the history books you see that an Argentine has only failed to reach the podium in 2010 and a South American has always been on the podium.
The 2015 route is very difficult. We again have 3 mountaintop finishes and an ITT. It’s the introduction of the Filo Sierras Comechingones climb that is very interesting. It’s a monster, 16km at 7.8%. Coming in the first race of the season, the riders will not be happy on stage 6.
The defending champion is Nairo Quintana. The Colombian won at a canter, in 2014. This year, he claims to be a little behind in his preparation as he focuses on the Tour de France, not the Giro d’Italia. One of the main strengths of Quintana is the capability of winning races, even when he’s not at 100%. Top form is never far away for the little Colombian.
Talking of Colombians, the enigma that is Carlos Betancur is here. Word is, he’s lean and motivated to do well. Betancur is every bit as talented as Quintana and if he really is fit he is a massive threat on GC. His TT ability is poor, but at only 17km, it’s not a long TT. 3 mountaintop finishes give Betancur the opportunity to put serious time into his rivals. A fit Betancur is sight I love to see!
Dani Moreno is here, but not a major contender. This is his 3rd consecutive visit. He loves Argentina and is married to one of it’s natives. He usually is not in great form at the start of the year, so don’t expect too much from Moreno. Instead, Team Katusha will look towards Ilnur Zakarin. Their new signing from RusVelo, is a talented climber. If in form, he will be hanging with the big boys on the climbs.
World Champion, Michal Kwiakowski, gets to show off his rainbow jersey on the streets of San Luis. He’s brilliant in week long stage races but might struggle with stage 6 and the 16km climb. We will get an idea of his shape on stage 2, with the climb to Mirador de Potrero.
Team Cannondale-Garmin arrive with Danielson and Dombrowski. Tommy D ended 2014 with brilliant performances in Utah and the USA Pro Challenge. He’s another that doesn’t usually perform well at this point of the season. If he is at his best, he would be a contender for the overall crown.
I do like the look of Eduardo Sepulveda. Riding for the French team, Bretagne – Seche, he performed well in 2014. His best results were 6th in San Luis, 4th in Tour de Med and 5th in the Criterium International. During the winter, he’s been riding on the track and staying in good condition. He even competed in the local race, the Giro del Sol. His condition is ahead of his European competitors and he has to be considered a favourite for the overall crown. He certainly should improve on his 6th place from 2014.
Janez Brajkovic rides for UnitedHealthcare for the first time. The former winner of the Dauphine is looking forward to a fresh start and a new challenge with the American team. 3 mountaintop finishes might just be too much for the Slovenian rider. It will be interesting to see if he can find something extra, now he’s team leader. Word from Argentina tells me that he’s recently spent some time in the wind tunnel. Sounds like Jani is serious about this race.
Lampre arrive with Niemiec and Cattaneo. The Pole is not in shape yet, so GC duties go to the very talented, young Italian. A former interviewee, I know the capabilities of Mattea Cattaneo. A former winner of the baby Giro, this boy can climb! He’s also capable of a very good ITT. There will be a question mark over fitness, this early in the season, but he could be an overall contender.
That brings me nicely to 2 of the South American teams. Firstly, the Brazilian squad of Funvic. The have recently signed Daniel Diaz, winner of the 2013 Tour de San Luis. Diaz is a brilliant cyclist and a tremendous capture for them. He can climb and TT and will share leadership duties with Alex Diniz. The Brazilian climber finished 3rd in 2013 impressed last year with 8th in Utah. The team look strong and capable of mixing it with the World Tour outfits.
Gregory Brenes is another rider that could challenge for a top 10 spot. The Costa-Rican rides for Jamis-Hagens Berman and is a talented climber. In 2014, he was 2nd in the Tour of Gila and 6th in the USA Pro Challenge in 2013. He’ll have Daniel Jaramillo for company, yet another talented Colombian. These 2 riders shouldn’t be underestimated.
Then we have the local heroes, San Luis Somos Todos. The local boys are always a massive threat and high on GC. Last year, Diaz had a bad time and Sergio Godoy stepped up to take 3rd place, with Enzo Moyano in 5th. Both riders will be eagerly anticipating another crack at Quintana and co. They have been working hard, preparing well and have to be considered as one of the favourites for the race. There is nothing better for the local fans than seeing their heroes go toe to toe against the best in the world. For the riders too, this is huge. Once a year, they get to compete against some of the best riders in the world and they want to show that they are just as good. Motivation is not a problem for the Somos Todos boys!
Prediction Time
With the hardest climb appearing on stage 6, the race might take on a different appearance, this year. The Mirador de Potrero climb, stage 2, doesn’t usually produce big gaps in the GC. The riders then face a very important run of 3 stages: 4, 5 and 6.
Stage 4 ends with 10.5km at 7.2%. As the ITT is the next day, we might not see fireworks until late in the stage. That could keep gaps down for the TT and final mountain stage. Last year, Quintana had the victory wrapped up early on, hopefully this doesn’t happen again this year.
In my eyes, the main contenders are Quintana, Diaz, Godoy, Moyano, Sepulveda, Rubiano, Betancur, Brajkovic, Kwiatkowski, Brenes and Diniz. Having a fairy strong TT is important in order to limit losses and enable the rider to ride defensively on stage 6. That points towards Quintana, Diaz, Kwiatkowski, Brajkovic, Sepulveda and Godoy. I still think the long climb will be too much for Kwiatkowski and Brajkovic. That means 4 riders left!
Who wins out of Quintana, Diaz, Sepulveda and Godoy will be very interesting. We could even see the Argentine riders gang up on Quintana and refuse to chase each other down.
An issue for Godoy is a recent injury. This kept him off the bike for 10 days, a long period so close to the big race. Enzo Moyano is a very able deputy. One, if not both of these riders will be in the top 5.
Due to the severity of the climb on stage 6, I can’t see past Nairo Quintana. This stage will be the most important and Quintana will have time to ride into form and fitness in the previous 5 days. I see a resurgent Dani Diaz pushing him all the way. Enjoy the fight!
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