By David Hunter

A race that disappeared from the calendar since 2008 is back! So good to see some more racing in Spain. The race consists of 5 stages: 1 ITT and 4 road stages. This is going to be a demanding week, with not much to interest the pure sprinters.

Stage 1

The opening stage is a 16.6km ITT. Like most races in Spain, it does feature a big hill! The climb is 2.1km at 4.8%, ensuring that this isn’t a TT just for the specialists. It certainly gives an opportunity to some of the climbers.

Stage 2

We are straight into a mountaintop finish, no hiding place here! The climb is 15km at 4.8%. For this time of the season, it’s the length that will be the most challenging aspect of the hill, although we do have ramps of 12%.

Stage 3

Stage 3 should be a day for the sprinters, but with significant time gaps from the previous stage, some of the breakaway experts might just fancy this one.

Stage 4

Stage 4 will settle the GC and it has one of those typical Spanish climbs. It’s 4km at 10.9%, before a short descent to the finish. This is a brutally steep climb with many sections over 20%. It has featured in the Vuelta on 5 occasions, since 1998, with David Moncoutie the last man to win here. It is a brutal, brutal climb. Expect some big gaps, even though it’s only 4km long.

Stage 5

Stage 5 does give the sprinters an opportunity to take a second stage. The GC will be all over and we only have a cat 3 climb to deal with.

Contenders

The race has only been granted 2.1 status, which means we don’t have all the WT teams here. Despite that, we do have some quality riders:-

Joaquim Rodriguez – the brilliant Purito. Won’t be delighted to see a 16km TT but the mountains will help him. He’ll need to try and limit his losses in the TT if he wants to win the GC.

Daniel Navarro – back after a disastrous 2015. In need of results, sooner rather than later.

Benat Intxausti – now riding for Team Sky. Went very well in Andalucia in 2015, on some very steep slopes. Is capable of a good TT, but too inconsistent in this discipline. Looks to have started the season quite well.

Mikel Nieve – great climber, who really stepped up at the end of 2015. His woeful TT means he can’t win the overall, so he’ll be here to support Intxausti.

Ion Izagirre – gets better every year. Remember he was 3rd in the Aia TT in 2015. Excellent TT rider and very good climber, he has a great chance of winning this title. Helps that he rides for Movistar, they are always brilliant on home soil.

Dan Martin – first race for Etixx. His TT really needs improvement, but he hasn’t had enough time yet. Certain challenger for a few stage wins and a high place on GC.

Bob Jungels – will be targeting the TT and then here to support Dan Martin. He might surprise a few and finish in the top 10.

Fabio Aru – the Italian sensation. These climbs are great for him, but as he is targeting the Tour, he might not be in shape yet. Can’t afford to lose too much time in the TT.

David Arroyo – classy Spaniard, who is still capable of a big result.

Jose Goncalves – one of the sensations of 2015. A lot of pressure is on him to follow this up in 2016. He also possesses a solid TT.

Sergey Firsanov – Now 33 years old, so getting towards the twilight of his career. Still capable of a big result in the mountains, especially if underestimated.

Due to the time trial, Izagirre and Intxausti will really fancy their chances of taking the win, despite the presence of Fabio Aru, Joaquim Rodriguez and Dan Martin.

With the two mountain finishes containing double digit sections, Rodriguez will be considered the favourite to take some stage wins, but how much time will he lose in the TT? The same will be said of Aru and Dan Martin.

Ion Izagirre will be targeting this and when he sets his sights on a race, he usually doesn’t disappoint. He was looking good in Mallorca, making the move on Saturday. Intxausti also impressed in Mallorca, but his TT is not as good as his former teammate.

The Astana squad looks mighty strong. They arrive with Aru, Rosa, LL Sanchez, Tiralongo, Kamyshev, Cataldo, Lutsenko and Malacarne. This spells trouble for the rest of the riders here, we all remember what this team can do to races.

Movistar will have the Herrada brothers and Dayer Quintana supporting Izagirre. The younger Quintana is fresh from winning in San Luis and is enjoying a purple patch. This is a strong Movistar outfit, despite missing Nairo and Valverde.

The big question is the TT and how much time Aru and Rodriguez will lose. Yes, the two mountain stages will suit them, but it will be difficult to make up over 1 minute. Izagirre and Intxausti will fancy taking time in the TT and then holding on during stage 4.

Fabio Aru is the best climber here. He followed up a great 2014, with an even better 2015. His win in the Vuelta was tremendous, as was his 2nd place in the Giro. Despite being super talented, he’s never started the season off with a win. As he develops, will he turn into a rider that can maintain a peak for a long time? We will just have to wait and see. Considering his target is July, it would be a surprise to see him flying in February. If not him, Astana can turn to Diego Rosa.

The Italian also enjoyed a great 2015, finishing it off with a win in Milano-Torino and 5th in Lombardia. He’s a real favourite of many and we should see more leadership opportunities for him in 2016. His poor TT will hinder him here. That is not a problem for LL Sanchez, but he doesn’t seem to get many chances anymore.

Prediction Time

It’s in Spain, so I’m backing a Movistar rider to win! The TT should be long enough and hard enough to help him take enough time on the others. A win for Ion Izagirre, to help him cement a place at the top table of cycling.

Stage 1 Preview

Benicassim – Oropesa del Mar 16.6km

The race begins with a challenging ITT. You can see from the picture, the route has many corners. This suits explosive riders, not necessarily the TT specialists.

The profile isn’t straight forward either. Any climb in a TT is tough, this one is around 2km at 5%. In a TT you must be on your maximum the whole time, that’s what makes climbs so hard. The amount of corners and the climb really does open the race up to more riders.

Specialists

Matthias Brande – 16km is just about perfect for Brandle. Had some solid TT results in 2015 and will be looking for another step forward in 2016. IAM have started the season well, but the climb is not his cup of tea.

Vasil Kiryienka – first time he’s had the chance to wear the rainbow jersey, in 2016. A hugely symbolic day for Kiri, but the length is not great for him. The longer the better! Although, he did finish 3rd over 10km in Tirreno.

Bob Jungels – a rider who seems to live on his TT bike. He improves every year and is a future world champion, in my humble opinion. First race with Etixx, he’d love to start with a win. Like Brandle, the distance is favourable for him.

The other riders who will hope to contend for the stage are not pure TT riders, but can produce big results on any day.

Benat Intxausti – New signing for Team Sky. The circuit is good for him and he wants a big result for his new team.

Ion Izagirre – Movistar have a tremendous record of winning TTs in Spain, Izagirre looks their best option. A very promising rider against the clock and his GC hopes will rest on this stage. He needs a big performance.

Niki Terpstra – Has previous for winning TTs at the start of the season. In 2015 he won the 10.9km TT in Qatar. Do not forget about Niki!

I would be very surprised if one of these riders didn’t win the stage. One added complication is the wind. We have to get a very strong wind from the North, that will gradually ease throughout the afternoon. The direction of the wind means it’s a headwind for a lot of the stage. Going out later will certainly be advantageous. Being able to cope with the conditions is also going to play a big part in the outcome of the race.

Prediction Time

A time trial in Spain? That means a win for Movistar. Has to be Ion Izagirre.

David Hunter

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