By David Hunter

We head back to Portugal and the defending champion is back, but this time he’s in the rainbow jersey!

This race marked the beginning of an exceptional season for Michal Kwiatkowski. He’s back for more.

Most of the stages are very familiar to fans of this race.

Stage 1 has the normal uphill finish in Albufeira. The sprinters don’t always like this and we can even see some small time gaps.The stage 2 finish in Monchique was an excellent addition to the race, in 2014. It’s back! 3.5km at 10% is hard and it caused some serious gaps last year. Being a daredevil descender is also a big advantage.

The ITT has increased in distance, all the way up to 19km. This is excellent news for the specialists.

Stage 4 and we return to Alto do Malhao. Familiar to all the riders and some have very fond memories of this climb. Tiago Machado always goes well but never wins! Richie Porte has won on this climb.

After a few hard days, the race finishes with another day for the sprinters.

In terms of sprinters, we have: Meersman, Selig, Porsev, Greipel, Swift and Jans. Obviosuly, Andre Greipel is the stand-out sprinter in the race. He’ll definitely win one stage.

The GC riders are: Kwiatkowski, LL Sanchez, Formolo, Machado, Gesink, Gallopin, Izagirre, Porte and Thomas.

Due to the 19km TT, it looks like being a battle between Porte and Kwiatkowski. Although, Tony Martin will be able to gain a lot of time over 19km, so he should also be considered as a GC favourite. In 2014, he lost a lot of time in the other stages but he was won this race on two occasions. He can limit his loses on the Malhao stage but Monchique is right on his limit. Having two options is certainly a bonus for Etixx.

Richie Porte is clearly in a massive purple patch. Winner of the Aussie TT championship and 2nd in the TDU, Porte should really be considered as the favourite for this race. Winner of the race in 2012, he knows what it takes to win in the Algarve and he is motivated to prove to everyone, that he should lead Sky in the Giro.

Davide Formolo was one of the breakthrough riders of 2014. He started the season well, in Mallorca, and will be looking for a top 5 finish here. He is capable of a reasonable TT but this will stop him from challenging for the overall title.

Another rider in form and capable of challenging for 3rd is Tony Gallopin. He was 2nd in Besseges, including 2nd place in the TT to a flying Bob Jungels. The climbs in the Algarve are not hugely difficult and Gallopin can do well here. I expect him to finish in the top 5.

Riding so close to Spain, means Movistar will want to do well. With Valverde in Oman and Quintana still recovering from a crash, he have Ion Izagirre as their leader. A very talented rider, Izagirre will be a big star but I can’t see him winning this year.

Tiago Machado is a home grown rider. The pressure is on for him to do well and I hope he does. He’s started the season very well, but the TT will hurt him. He can post a decent time but not close to Martin, Kwiatkowski and Porte. It would be nice to see him a win a stage, something he’s never managed to do.

Prediction Time

It all depends on how Tony Martin gets on in stage 2. Over 19km he should be able to find an extra 30 seconds to 1 minute over his challengers. He can limit loses on stage 4 but stage 2 will be decisive. If he falters, it should be a straight fight between Porte and Kwiatkowski, thanks to their superior TT ability. I have them very close in the TT, so stage 2 and 4 will be crucial. Porte is in the better form, so I go for the Aussie.

Volta ao Algarve-Stage 1 preview

Lagos – Albufeira 167km

Stage 1 is very familiar to fans of this race. It’s relatively straight forward with a 3rd cat climb with 56km to go. The climb is 1.5km at 11.7%, so not all that easy. The distance from the end of the stage ensures that the peloton will take it slowly and all the riders should stay together until the finish.

The finish is tough. We’ll get a big fight for positioning as the riders approach the penultimate roundabout, at around 1km to go. Then we have an uphill sprint for 500 metres, before a downhill sprint. The uphill section is 500 metres at 6%, and usually takes care of the “pure” sprinters. In such a section, it’s impossible to move up the bunch, so you have to be in the first 10 riders, at the roundabout.

Last year, Rui Costa drove up the climb and launched Sacha Modolo to victory. Behind them were Petacchi, Coquard, Napolitano and Demare. Other riders to win here are Gilbert, Meersman and Martens. Andre Greipel has been close, he’ll be determined to win this year.

Having a good uphill sprint is required and a strong team will also help. Riders in contention are: Kwiatkowski, Meersman, Stybar, Agnoli, Navardauskas, Porsev, Greipel, Debusschere, Gallopin, Swift, Bauhaus and Roy Jans.

Etixx and Lotto are the strongest teams here and I can’t see any other team displacing them in the closing kilometres. Both have sprinters here but with bonus seconds being important, we might see them trying to set up their GC rider. Etixx are spoilt for choices with Meersman, Stybar and Kwiatkowski. Both Meersman and Stybar have shown recent form, with Meersman winning the Cadel Evans race and Stybar finishing 3rd in Murcia. Kwiatkowski is the defending champion and will be looking for bonus seconds. He might lead-out Meersman and try to hold on for 2nd or 3rd place.

Lotto have Greipel. Not only do them have him but they have Sieberg and Roelandts to provide lead-out duties. With Tony Gallopin targeting the GC, it will be interesting to see how Lotto play the end of the stage.

Team Sky are here with Ben Swift. This finish looks perfect for Swifty and he can count on Geraint Thomas to set him up. People forget how good Thomas is as a final lead-out man. Cresting the climb near the front is crucial. The last 500 metres is downhill but you need to be at the front after the climb. Swift certainly will be there but he lacks a real kick, he’ll have to hope that Greipel and Meersman are a bit further back.

Alexander Porsev is enjoying a good start to the season. He was only 6th in Almeria, thanks to a crash in the peloton. His two 4th places in Dubai show that he is in form, and Katusha did a lot of work in Almeria to set up the sprint. A sign that his team have confidence in him.

Prediction Time

Greipel is here to win stages. He has some of his main lieutenants with him and this should mean he takes the opening stage. Meersman and Swift should complete the podium.

David Hunter

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